tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18329793881242163802024-03-13T05:23:09.246+00:00Thoughts on ThingsBook reviews and commentary on politics and other subjectsAdminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comBlogger181125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-87165469954241854012023-05-07T10:04:00.000+01:002023-05-07T10:04:35.668+01:00The mourning after<p>The Coronation of King Charles III is over - and a magnificent performance it was, from the Edwardian cadences of Parry's <i>I Was Glad</i> to the couture of Princess Kate, Penny Mordaunt and the Garter robes. The ceremonies went well. Very well.</p><p>Too well.</p><p>I don't support the monarchy, but I had thought that a case could be made for the Coronation as a great national event that would bring people together in a way that was free from party politics. The excess of the ceremonies would be the whole point - self-ironic camp. We revel in this kitsch and don't take it seriously. We're the nation that produced Monty Python. We're not Americans.</p><p>But it didn't work. There was something off.</p><p>The ritual and spectacle didn't quite mask the reality of a state and nation in decline. The disjunction was ultimately too obvious. In the middle ages, a coronation was a demonstration of power. Yesterday, the ceremony gestured discreetly but embarrassingly to the feebleness of the modern British state. A Britain which is diminished by Brexit, staggering along as those who really run the country are unable to keep it functioning amidst economic stagnation and looming recession. The smart marching soldiers might serve as a painful reminder of the underfunding of the real army. The lavish resourcing might point to a contrast with those who find themselves on picket lines striking for their livelihoods. The minute-perfect timing might have seemed a bit too perfect for those waiting for NHS operations. When Republic protestors were arrested by the police, the real story was not uniformed fascists suppressing dissent, it was just the Met being the Met: dimwitted officers of another badly-run public service reminding everyone of their desperate need for reform and leadership.</p><p>And the sea levels continue to rise.</p><p>This is not a cheap point about spending a hundred million on a king in an age of food banks, as if having a president would suddenly make Britain parsimonious about spending money on state events (it hasn't worked for France, America or India). It is about a more general air of unreality. Yesterday came too close to going through the motions. </p><p>The aesthetics were triumphalist, but there was a ghost at the feast. The artificiality was too disconcerting - symbolised, perhaps, by Liz Truss turning up as if she'd been a real Prime Minister, or by the Commonwealth heads of government who marched into the Abbey straight from planning their republic referendums. There was an underlying elegiac mood.</p><p>This was not the start of a new reign but the end of an era. It was the final celebration of a certain kind of monarchism and a certain kind of Britain. In 1953, people were still living in a fool's paradise. Talk of a "New Elizabethan era" still meant something. We'd won the War, don't you know. Churchill was back in Number 10, like some ham actor who returns for an ill-judged sequel. The collapsing of the Empire still hadn't become too obvious, and no-one had yet heard of the EEC. Britain in 2023 is a very different proposition. There were well-meaning gestures toward multiculturalism - and there was real power in a Hindu PM reading from the Bible, and in Black and Asian aristocrats attending the King - signs of real substantial changes in British society which can't be dismissed as tokenism. And yet in some sense those were the elements which most served to emphasise the theatricality of the proceedings. The rituals combined to make us ask, <i>Who are we, really?</i> It is a question that has not gone away since 2016, and it can't be avoided like it was 70 years ago. When the Queen was buried, there was more in that coffin than Elizabeth Windsor.</p><p>We live in serious times; grim times, even. Yesterday came dangerously close to suggesting that we are not a serious country. The Britain revealed by the coronation was not a proud resurgent Brexit nation or a cisheteropatriarchal imperial despotism. It was a second-rate country which just isn't very good.</p>Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-57592798743318562742020-03-27T19:54:00.000+00:002020-05-17T18:51:24.012+01:00British politics, deference and sexuality - An episode from the 1960sAn <a href="https://www.iicsa.org.uk/key-documents/9655/view/public-hearing-transcript-5-march-2019.pdf">exchange</a> from the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse between counsel and the veteran Labour politician Lord (Dick) Taverne.<br />
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Q. Now, I want to ask you about a conversation or a meeting which you attended which Roy Jenkins called. Present was yourself, and also Sir Joe Simpson. He was the Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police at the time?<br />
<br />
A. Correct.<br />
<br />
Q. ....First of all, who called the meeting?<br />
<br />
A. Roy Jenkins called the meeting, as part of his concern about the reform of the laws about homosexuality, because he was determined to reform the law, and he was concerned about the fact that the police spent quite a lot of time wasting their time, as he saw it, in tracking homosexuals by investigating various so-called cottages.<br />
<br />
Q. Right. "Cottages" was a term really that was used to describe public lavatories?<br />
<br />
A. Yes, public lavatories frequented particularly by homosexuals....<br />
<br />
Q. Let me ask you, please, about your recollection of what was said....<br />
<br />
A. Well, [Jenkins] said, "I'm concerned about the waste of police time, which is valuable, in visiting these cottages, and I think you ought to discontinue this practice".... And Simpson said - first of all, he said, "Home Secretary, it is quite unconstitutional for you to tell me, as a policeman, how I should operate. However, I will certainly look at this", and then he made a surprise remark, which is, "As a matter of fact, there are several cottages in Westminster which we don't investigate", and we asked - or Roy asked why, and he says, "Because it would be embarrassing", and "Why? Is it because of the fact that they're frequented by MPs?", and, in fact, Joe Simpson said, "Yes, that's the reason".<br />
<br />
Q. So it was Roy Jenkins who asked the question: "Is it because they're frequented by MPs?"<br />
<br />
A. No, he asked the question "Why?", I think, and it was Joe Simpson who said, "Because they are frequented by celebrities and MPs".<br />
<br />
Q. The meeting, therefore, when it was called, so far as Roy Jenkins is concerned, and your understanding of the reasons for the meeting, had nothing to do with this remark which Joe Simpson made, it was to do with the generality of police wasting time and resources attending public lavatories?<br />
<br />
A. That's right. His reply was a surprise to him and me. We didn't know that was police practice.<br />
<br />
Q. When he came out with the surprising remark, what was Roy Jenkins' reaction to it?<br />
<br />
A. Well, I think surprise, like mine, because he didn't - well, he didn't know about it.<br />
<br />
Q. When you say "didn't know about it", didn't know that the police had, as it were, a special way of dealing or avoiding arresting MPs and the like?<br />
<br />
A. Well, it seemed another - well, it seemed that it was part of a practice which they made rather selective, which, again, seemed rather unjustified.<br />
<br />
Q. ....As a result of that, do you know what happened? Did they change the policy at all that they seemed to have had?<br />
<br />
A. Yes. He announced - I wasn't there, but then it was his decision that they should cease the practice. So he did in fact do what Roy asked him.<br />
<br />
Q. ....Was it still a topic of interest under Jim Callaghan... when he was in the Home Office?<br />
<br />
A. No, I don't think he was very enthusiastic about the change to the law, but nor were most of the Cabinet. It was something which Roy very much forced through because he was a dominant force in the Cabinet at the time.Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-12548283144801300512019-12-11T18:35:00.001+00:002019-12-11T18:36:26.551+00:00Gays in the media, 1983-2007A few months ago, the gay journalist and campaigner Terry Sanderson published <a href="https://gtmediawatch.org/">a complete collection</a> of his <i>Gay Times</i> "Mediawatch" columns from 1983 to 2007. The columns, which dealt with coverage of homosexuality in the British media, form a valuable resource on this aspect of British social history.<br />
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*</div>
<br />
What does Sanderson's archive tell us? It reminds us, first of all, that the 1980s were not an easy time to be gay. This was in part because a lot of British people still believed in older notions that homosexuality was contrary to nature or a sin against God. But it was also because of the wave of alarmism about AIDS - the "gay plague" - and concerns about how easy it might be for heterosexuals to catch it. Gays, of course, were <i>victims </i>of AIDS; but in many quarters compassion was reserved for those, like haemophiliacs, who could be seen as "innocent" casualties of the epidemic.<br />
<br />
There was always <i>some </i>sympathetic media coverage of gay issues<i>;</i> but there was also explicit bigotry. Journalists wrote openly about "poofters" and "queers". Tedious stereotypes recurred of male homosexuals as effeminate and promiscuous, coupled with scaremongering about older gay men preying on impressionable youths (while actual gay youths could expect a rough ride from their parents). If someone suggested that a celebrity might be gay, they were quick to deny it. If they really <i>were</i> gay, there was a significant chance that they would be luridly "outed".<br />
<br />
Sanderson's archive attests that some people in eighties Britain considered that restoring the pre-1967 legal ban on gay sex was a legitimate option. It is easy to be shocked by this kind of extreme view today. But more insidious, and perhaps ultimately worse, was the widespread feeling that gays ought to shut up and be happy now because they were no longer being overtly persecuted. <i>I don't care what they get up to in bed, I just wish they'd stop asking for special privileges.</i> This attitude reflected a woeful lack of understanding of the discrimination that gay Britons continued to face. Despite the 1967 liberalisation of the law, police harrassment of the community continued. And in the political sphere, there was the campaign against "loony left" councils which provided services to gay people - a campaign that led directly to the notorious Section 28.<br />
<br />
The situation underwent no radical change in the 1990s. Rumours about closet cases continued to feature in the media, as did stories based on "outings". Right up to the end of the decade, men like George Michael and Peter Mandelson were continuing to be visited with press attention for the wrong reasons. In 1998, the <i>Daily Telegraph</i> stated bluntly in an editorial:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Prejudice against homosexuality is justified - not because homosexual
men or women are wicked, but because the homosexual condition itself is
usually an unhappy one, and one that no loving parent would wish on his
child.</blockquote>
As late as 2000, the prominent journalist and editor Peter McKay could write in the <i>Daily Mail</i>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
We’re being battered into submission by gay self-pity. First it was Aids and the claim that the heterosexual majority was letting gays die rather than seek a cure for the disease to which their sexual habits make them vulnerable. Since this is no longer tenable, we are harried about their status and right to have sex in public places… the drip-drip-drip Chinese torture of gay propaganda results in new laws and ‘rights’. Yesterday we were told that Culture Secretary Chris Smith, who is gay, phoned Education Secretary David Blunkett to say he and others were anxious that any Government promotion of marriage did not ‘implicitly denigrate homosexuality.’</blockquote>
But times <i>were </i>moving on, if only slowly and imperfectly. In 1994, the age of consent for gay men was lowered to 18, and in 2000 it was equalised with the straight age at 16. Medical advances reduced the threat posed by HIV/AIDS. Traditionally homophobic institutions began to reform. Police harrasment eased, and the force began to advertise for gay recruits. An increasing number of Christians came round to the idea that they had got it wrong. The ban on homosexuality in the armed forces was dropped. Even the media eventually began to have a word with itself: by the noughties, the bullying practice of "outing" had evolved to a large extent into voluntary coming out. In 2001, the <i>Daily Telegraph</i> itself printed an editorial saying that it would have no problem with a gay Conservative leader (although Michael Portillo's sexuality was still an issue when he stood for that position later in the year).<br />
<br />
In 2002, Sanderson considered thoughtfully whether the gay movement had come close to achieving what it wanted:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Integration is what it’s all about. Assimilation even. A separate gay identity is no longer desirable, we are told. We are just people who happen to be gay, and after we have finished work in our equal opportunities job, we can return to our homes in suburbia, living in happy and accepted partnerships among the other aspiring young marrieds. After all, nobody minds that you’re gay these days, do they, even in territory where the school run is the main event of the day?...<br />
<br />
But it isn’t going to be quite that simple.... There is the battle for hearts and minds – still far from won, despite the impression given in the media that homo-hatred is, to all intents and purposes, over. Violence and discrimination continue to plague the lives of many.<br />
<br />
There is still, among the population at large, a widespread suspicion of gay people that can sometimes morph into outright hatred....<br />
<br />
So we have a halfway house. One the one hand, unprecedented freedom to live our lives the way we want to, and on the other, a whole well of loathing and mistrust that can wreck our plans overnight.</blockquote>
And indeed it is quite clear from Sanderson's archive that prejudice still continued. The campaigns of the 1990s and 2000s to equalise the age of
consent and to repeal Section 28 generated nasty homophobic backlashes
which are now generally forgotten. In the latter case, the backlash
almost succeeded in deterring the Blair government from pursuing the
repeal. Men in public life continued to be outed: this happened to the Lib Dem politicians Simon Hughes and Mark Oaten as late as 2006 (even as Sanderson noted that the 2005 election was the first one in
which every party had abandoned overt homophobia and tried to court the
gay vote). <br />
<br />
Nevertheless, the decline in open anti-gay bigotry in the media lead to Sanderson's column being discontinued in 2007 (and replaced with a new feature focused on religion). He wrote in his last piece:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Although occasionally [the papers] will revert to type and publish something
breathtakingly anti-gay, they will follow up the next day with something
completely sympathetic. For every attack on George Michael for his
unapologetic cruising and cottaging, there will be a sycophantic report
of Elton and David’s domestic life that makes everyone go “aah”. Every
time The Daily Mail uses us as a tool in its never-ending campaign to
impose right-wing values on Britain, it will be balanced by a feature
about how women came to love their husbands all over again when they
came out as gay.</blockquote>
<div style="text-align: center;">
*</div>
<br />
The greatest liberal policy success of the last decade was the legalisation of gay marriage. Sanderson's archive sheds some light on the history of this particular achievement.<br />
<br />
Perhaps surprisingly, the <i>Sunday Telegraph</i> carried an article advocating gay marriage as early as 1988. The matter was further discussed in the <i>Independent on Sunday</i> in 1991:<br />
<blockquote>
Lily
Lamb, a cake decorator, donned her philosopher’s cap to pronounce:
“It’s wrong to have homosexuals at all… I wouldn’t decorate a gay
wedding cake on principle.” While Diana Shirley “a honeymoon holiday
specialist” said she was “against homosexuals marrying, but on the
business side I’m for it”.</blockquote>
Progress was
sluggish, but the issue had gained traction by the mid-90s, and in 1997
the Conservative leader William Hague was reported as expressing
sympathy for the idea. By this time, public debate was also in train on
the issue of gay people being parents or foster-parents.<br />
<br />
By
the noughties, gay marriage and parenting had become a feature of the social policy agenda. In 2000, the <i>Times</i> magazine ran a feature on the subject headlined "The New Happy Families". In 2001, Ken Livingstone introduced civil registrations in
London, and a gay wedding was performed by a rogue bishop on the <i>Richard and Judy Show</i>. In 2003, the Government announced plans for civil partnerships, to the consternation of right-wing journalists like Simon Heffer and Tom Utley. In an editorial, the <i>Daily Telegraph </i>doubted whether gays really wanted to get married at all:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The question should be asked whether society has any strong interest in encouraging stable partnerships between homosexuals, of the same sort of as its interest in encouraging marriage. How many gay rights campaigners actually want parity with married couples, come to that, and how many are simply making a propaganda point?</blockquote>
Yet the following year the <i>Telegraph</i> reversed its position, leaving the <i>Daily Mail</i> as the only national newspaper to oppose recognising gay relationships in law. Civil partnerships finally began to be celebrated in 2006, by which time even the <i>Mail</i> had decided to throw in the towel:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Yesterday was a celebration of the live-and-let live tolerance that marks our society, a signal moment in our social history and the righting of a long injustice… we wish all those couples good fortune.</blockquote>
Nevertheless, the paper was also on hand a couple of months later to report on the first gay divorce.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
*</div>
<br />
What are the lessons here for Brexit Britain? The main one may be that there is no room for complacency at a time when we may be going backwards into a new era of social conservatism. There is perhaps a special resonance to Sanderson's words from the 1990s in relation to the proposal to equalise the age of consent at 16:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
We should be thankful that [Parliamentary democracy] is the brand of democracy we favour in this country, because if we made our legislative decisions by referenda, Britain would be a deeply unpleasant place to live. The frequent hysterical outbursts calling for hanging, flogging, castration and the sending home of “immigrants” give some indication of what I mean.</blockquote>
Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-78744379517720925332019-09-26T12:07:00.004+01:002019-09-26T23:47:17.807+01:00Cavaliers and RoundheadsIn this post, I want to write about a basic divide which Brexit has exposed between authoritarian and liberal views of our constitution. Let's call it the divide between Cavaliers and Roundheads: supporters of strong executive power versus supporters of strong Parliamentary control of the executive.<br />
<br />
Hardline Brexiteers are Cavaliers because we have a hardline Brexit government, and they are reverse-engineering their views backwards from that - but it's worth bearing in mind that it didn't have to be this way. The authoritarian and liberal views of the British constitution are much older than Brexit, and it is only chance that has put the Brexiteers on the Cavalier side.<br />
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<b>The basic problem</b><br />
<br />
By "Cavalier", I don't mean someone who supports Charles I and the divine right of kings. Today's Cavaliers obviously believe in democracy rather than hereditary monarchy. But the deeper continuity with the historical Cavaliers is a belief in strongman leadership and suspicion of Parliament as an independent actor. In the Cavalier worldview, Parliament is there to support the government. MPs' job is to boo and cheer at each other across the chamber while ministers get on with the serious business of running the country. The soundbite used to describe this is: "Parliament must have its say, but the government must get its way".<br />
<br />
"Roundheads" regard this idea as a constitutional obscenity. They are supporters of parliamentary and constitutional governance, complete with checks and balances. They believe that the executive should be constrained by a powerful legislature and by independent judges. In the context of Brexit, they may well believe that Brexit needs to be delivered because the referendum created a moral obligation to do so, but they do not believe that the referendum result justifies violating orthodox constitutional principles or the rule of law.<br />
<br />
As I say, this divide has existed for a long time, but it has tended to be masked because in the British political system the executive is generally aligned with the legislature. It is unusual for the party that controls the executive not to be able to command a majority in the House of Commons. Between 1945 and 2017, this has been the case only on three brief occasions: during Harold Wilson's brief third government in 1974, and in the dying years of the Callaghan and Major administrations.<br />
<br />
The fact that the executive and the legislature are generally controlled by the same party means that Cavaliers and Roundheads can generally both appeal to Parliament as the ultimate political authority. This is often linked with romantic notions of Parliament as the historical source of English law and liberties, disappearing into the mists of Magna Carta and the middle ages. The problem is that the two sides have meant different things by "Parliament". Cavaliers could afford to idealise Parliament when Parliament was controlled by the executive. Roundheads thought that Parliament ought to count for something in its own right.<br />
<br />
It is this divide which has been exposed by Brexit.<br />
<br />
It is a divide that exists in other countries too. Some other European states - France being one prominent example - have a rightwing anti-parliamentary tradition that goes back decades. Of course, everybody in the modern West believes in democracy (or says that they do), so the divide isn't between democracy and monarchy or democracy and dictatorship. Even Vladimir Putin holds elections, and Russia experts say that he would probably still win them even if they were conducted fairly. The same can be said of Orban, Kaczynski, Erdogan, Bolsanaro and the rest. The divide is rather between an authoritarian form of democracy, in which the only mechanism of accountability is when the strongman and his regime face a five-yearly general election - and a liberal form of democracy, in which the government has to worry not only about losing a distant election but also about losing a vote in the parliament or a case in the supreme court <i>today</i>.<b> </b><br />
<br />
<b>The problem with the Cavalier view</b> <br />
<br />
The fallacy at the heart of the Cavalier view is that <i>we elect governments</i>. To believe this is to make a fundamental mistake about the British constitution. In some countries - those with a presidential system of government - voters do indeed elect the executive. This is the case in America, France, South Korea, Argentina and many other countries. But in Britain, we elect MPs, and MPs choose the government. The Commons is the "master of the ministry", to use the historic phrase, and this is why it is perfectly acceptable for the government to change without an election (Blair/Brown, Cameron/May and May/Johnson being the most recent examples of this).<br />
<br />
The result of this is that only MPs have direct democratic legitimacy. The democratic legitimacy of the government is secondary and indirect. If there is a conflict between the government and the House of Commons, our constitutional tradition requires that the government <i>must lose</i> that conflict. And that is true however much you want Brexit.<br />
<br />
The notion that we do not elect governments is obscured in practice by the fact that MPs are almost invariably party members, and the two main party leaderships campaign on the basis that they will form a government if the election results favour them. But these are matters of political practice. They have no bearing on the constitutional principles involved. Parties have no constitutional status, as shown by the fact that MPs can and do defect from one party to another without having to fight a by-election. Historically, governments have changed between different parties and coalitions without an election being needed (there are several precedents for this from within the last century).<br />
<br />
Political parties are a necessity - a necessary evil, we might say - in an advanced democracy. But emphasising their role at the expense of the independence of individual MPs is essentially an authoritarian, pro-executive move. Strengthening the role of parties means, in practice, strengthening the powers of patronage and discipline wielded by the party leaders. Another variant of the same move is emphasising the authority of party manifestos: manifestos are written by the party leaderships and implemented by the executive. Hardly any voters read manifestos, and they have no legal effect. MPs are absolutely free to rebel against them. The only <i>convention</i>, let alone rule, which applies to party manifestos is the Salisbury convention, which applies to the House of Lords rather than the Commons (it holds that the Lords cannot block a party's manifesto commitments).<br />
<br />
Of course, the reason why MPs don't normally rebel against their party or manifesto is down to the power of the whips. Traditionally, when Parliament was run as a kind of boys' club, whipping was not necessarily a problem because the relationship between the leadership and backbenchers worked both ways. MPs did not need to rebel in the division lobbies as long as they could influence the government privately. Ken Clarke wrote in his memoirs, <i>Kind of Blue</i>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The government was profoundly influenced by the opinion of its backbenchers and expected to make concessions on the content of bills and on policy positions if any significant disquiet was detected. A rebellious vote was very rare indeed.... Concession and compromise out of the public gaze in response to influential Members' opinions was quite normal.<br />
<br />
The result of this gentlemen's club-like atmosphere was that Parliament was profoundly more influential on the government than it is today. I spent my career observing the steady decline of Parliament's influence on public life....</blockquote>
Let that last sentence sink in.<br />
<br />
<b>The Benn Act</b><br />
<br />
Brexit has lead to some wild constitutional theorising. We are told that it was illegitimate for the Commons to pass the Cooper Act, and then the Benn Act, as neither measure was proposed by the government. But the notion that only governments can or should propose legislation is a complete non-starter.<br />
<br />
The clue is in the word "legislature". The legislature is there to legislate. But on the Cavalier view, it is essentially a talking shop. It serves to "hold the government to account" - not by actually telling the government that it cannot do things that it wants to do, but by... asking questions to ministers. Much like journalists do at a press conference.<br />
<br />
Any objections to the Cooper and Benn Acts fail in the light of the established fact that private members' bills are a recognised part of the Parliamentary process. They are regularly proposed and not infrequently enacted. Eight were passed in the last (2016-17) Parliamentary session. In most cases, such bills are uncontroversial; but not always. It was private members' bills that abolished hanging, legalised abortion and decriminalised homosexuality (against the will of the majority of voters at the time, it might be added).<br />
<br />
Cavaliers answer this by saying that private members' bills are <i>effectively</i> government bills because in practice they are only passed if the government allows parliamentary time for them to be debated. But this is insufficient to meet the Cavaliers' own case. Private members' bills appear in no manifesto, and the executive cannot be held accountable for them. They may also be actively displeasing to ministers, as demonstrated by Tony Blair's widely reported unhappiness at the passage of the Hunting Act 2004.<br />
<br />
<b>Where to now?</b><br />
<br />
The best-case scenario at this point is that the Cavaliers have gone too far. A combination of Boris Johnson's boorish arrogance and John Bercow's willingness to stand up for the Commons may lead to a fundamental shift away from the Cavalier model in the future - whatever happens with Brexit. The worst-case scenario is... well, we know what it is.<br />
<br />
As the arch-Brexiteer conservative Peter Hitchens once said, "when Parliament comes into conflict with the executive, you don't need to ask me which side I'm on".Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-9650348445190434892019-09-07T17:42:00.002+01:002019-09-07T17:42:32.793+01:00Brexit and World War IIThe UK's national identity is intimately bound up with its victory in World War II. This is largely because that was the last time that we won anything important, even though the victory also belonged to the rest of what was then the British Empire, the USA, the Soviet Union and the Free French forces.<br />
<br />
References to World War II have accordingly become a cliché of the Brexit debate. This post rounds up some of the occasions on which the cliché has been deployed by supporters of the Leave side.<br />
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<b>The EU is like Nazi Germany</b><br />
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-compares-eu-to-nazi-superstate-brexit-ukip/">Boris Johnson MP, 15 May 2016</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/anti-eu-billboards-reading-halt-ze-german-advance-placed-on-m40-a7055186.html">Leave campaigners, 29 May 2016 </a></li>
<li><a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/david-davis-we-coped-with-world-war-two-we-can-cope-with-brexit/">Boris Johnson MP, 18 January 2017</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/04/mervyn-king-theresa-may-brexit-deal-mark-carney">Lord Mervyn King, 4 December 2018 </a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-47004688/brexiter-tory-mp-mark-francois-accuses-airbus-boss-of-german-bullying">Mark Francois MP, 25 January 2019</a></li>
<li><a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/mark-francois-david-lammy-jean-claude-juncker-bunker-comments-luxembourg/">Mark Francois MP, 26 July 2019 </a></li>
</ul>
<b>Brexit is like Dunkirk</b><br />
<ul>
<li><a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-donations-hargreaves/insecurity-is-fantastic-says-billionaire-funder-of-brexit-campaign-idUKKCN0Y22ID">Peter Hargreaves (Vote Leave donor), 11 May 2016</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/politics/brexit-work-need-dunkirk-spirit-not-naysaying-nellies/">Allison Pearson (<i>Daily Telegraph</i>), 1 August 2017</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/leo-mckinstry/837708/dunkirk-movie-2017-film-battle-winston-churchill-brexit">Leo McKinstry (<i>Daily Express</i>), 7 August 2017 </a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/30/jeremy-hunt-warns-eu-bad-brexit-deal-will-stir-britains-dunkirk/">Jeremy Hunt MP, 28 September 2018</a> </li>
</ul>
<b>The EU should be grateful to us because we liberated Europe.</b><br />
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/04/do-mention-the-war-the-politicians-comparing-brexit-to-wwii">Daniel Kawczynski MP, 2 February 2019</a></li>
<li><a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2019-04-03/debates/5F15A794-4045-4A04-A714-1FED79C45726/EuropeanUnion(Withdrawal)(No5)Bill">Bill Cash MP, 3 April 2019 </a></li>
</ul>
<b>We can cope with Brexit because we won the War </b><br />
<ul>
<li><a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/david-davis-we-coped-with-world-war-two-we-can-cope-with-brexit/">David Davis MP, 18 January 2017</a></li>
<li><a href="https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1042864689628291073">Darren Grimes (Leave campaigner), 20 September 2018 </a></li>
</ul>
<b>Other</b><br />
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/archives/politics/275289/who-do-eu-think-you-are-kidding-mr-cameron/"><i>The Sun</i> references <i>Dad's Army</i> in a headline about David Cameron's EU policy, 3 February 2016</a></li>
<li><a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-worldwartwo/brexit-debate-brings-out-britains-world-war-two-fixation-idUKKCN0YP1XO">Nigel Farage uses <i>The Great Escape</i> in his campaigning, 3 June 2016</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/06/will-channel-churchill-brexiteers-warn-michel-barnier-iron/">Group of Brexiteers claim they will show Winston Churchill's "iron will", 6 January 2018</a></li>
<li><a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-blitz/may-evoked-blitz-spirit-to-show-eu-brexit-progress-idUKKCN1RN26Z">PM Theresa May compares cross-party talks to World War II coalition, 11 April 2019</a></li>
<li><a href="https://euobserver.com/brexit/145552">Boris Johnson sets up Brexit "War Cabinet", 29 July 2019</a></li>
</ul>
Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-4882690962416074342019-07-22T18:22:00.002+01:002019-07-24T18:11:35.830+01:00Deckchairs RearrangedUseless May is now finally about to leave Number 10 after three years in office. It has seemed like a lot longer. May is undoubtedly the least successful Prime Minister in modern times: Callaghan, Major and Brown were titans of statesmanship by comparison. Part of the explanation for her fate is her
own flaws and weaknesses: she was popular until people found out what
she was like. She is a living example of how quiet, socially awkward
individuals can be overpromoted because everyone assumes that they must be good at the technical stuff. <i>Capax imperii, nisi imperasset</i>, as Johnson might write in one of his Telegraph columns. But this isn't just the story of one individual who was inadequate to her role. Theresa Mary May is the fifth Conservative prime minister in a row to lose her job
over Europe, and she will probably not be the last.<br />
<br />
There is every likelihood that the Tory Party will turn on Johnson too, sooner rather than later. He can't go on making incompatible promises to his warring factions: he is going to need to start taking some decisions. There is a good chance that his time in office will be a short one - but he can still do a lot of damage in the meantime. He must be one of the few people in the United Kingdom who is even less suited to the premiership than May. He is Donald Trump with an Oxford degree. A charmless cultivated eccentric of the sort that this country has produced for centuries. A man whose only fixed political principle seems to be a manchild's resentment at having to follow rules (an instinct which, not coincidentally, shines through his writings on the European Union). A journalist who was fired for lying and whose current newspaper defended an Ipso complaint with the argument that it was obvious that his columns were not meant to be taken seriously. His latest pronouncement - that Brexit is quite a lot like the moon landings when you think about it, so we can do it if we believe hard enough - is so desperately ludicrous that he probably more or less believes it.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Johnson's main achievement so far has been to save the Conservative Party from collapse in the face of the Faragiste threat. And that, of course, is the main point now - Brexit as the "will of the people" has morphed into Brexit as a necessity to keep the Tory Party together. Fewer people are still bothering to pretend that crashing out without a deal is a matter of high-minded democratic principle: the
European Parliament elections revealed the true size of the vote for
"no deal" as 36.8% (the combined vote shares of the Brexit Party and UKIP). It's not a majority, or close to a majority; but Johnson and his party comrades want that 36.8% back. Brexit is ending, as it began, in an attempt to salvage something from the nervous breakdown of British conservatism. In the meantime, it has become a textbook case of a revolution radicalising itself. Brexit has become hard Brexit has become "no deal" Brexit, even as the basic flaws of the project are remorselessly exposed. Yet Brexit, axiomatically, cannot be a bad idea, so its failure must be the fault of wreckers or saboteurs. Perhaps it was May's fault for being a Remainer. Perhaps it was Phil Hammond. Perhaps it was Olly Robbins, or other traitors in the civil service. As has often been pointed out, this is the hard right's equivalent of apologetics for the failure of communism - it would all work splendidly if only it was tried in a purer form.<br />
<br />
As an individual, Johnson makes an unlikely figurehead for a reactionary right-wing insurgency. The man's private life would have automatically
disqualified him in any Tory
leadership election up to and including the 1990s - and yet he is lauded
by Tory members who tell opinion pollsters that they support the death
penalty more than gay marriage. And that is before we address the DUP's willingness to prop up a man whose history with abortion is, shall we
say, more than theological. One begins to see how God-fearing American evangelicals came to vote for a man like Donald Trump. Johnson's elevation to the premiership is a symptom of a wider tendency among Conservatives to give up conserving things and start smashing them to pieces instead. For sworn British patriots, these people have a remarkable contempt for British institutions. They have attacked by turns the House of Commons, the House of Lords, the judiciary, the civil service, the diplomatic service, the universities, the Electoral Commission and the Bank of England. They have ignored their natural allies in the CBI and the City. Some of them have called for the abolition of the monarchy, on the grounds that the Queen assented to Yvette Cooper's bill. They are rather impressed with the idea of closing Parliament through the archaic device of prorogation. Polls show that they would rather that the UK literally ceased to exist, through the departure of Scotland and Northern Ireland, than that it remained within the European Union. If these people take back any more control, there won't be anything left.<br />
<br />
Where does this end? If the overriding importance of Brexit allows every other rule and principle to be shredded, what <i>wouldn't </i>it allow? A
military takeover? Seriously - if leaving the EU takes precedence over
every other aspect of our political system, and a group of obliging generals promised to deliver Brexit, why not? If this sounds ridiculously alarmist, bear in mind that the Canadian and Serbian governments have warned their citizens
about travelling to the UK due to the possibility of civil unrest.<br />
<br />
Bear in mind too the militarism and barely suppressed rage that is currently to be seen on the nationalist right. There is Mark Francois, who specialises in telling anyone who will listen
that he was in the Army (as a reservist, he usually omits to mention). There is self-styled "Brexit hardman Steve Baker". There is Dominic Raab, who complained about us being "humiliated as a country". Even
Daniel Hannan, who likes to present himself as the most painfully reasonable guy in the room, has been seen whiffling about "national honour". In April, Bill Cash got the House of Commons mixed up with his psychiatrist's couch as the appropriate venue for revealing his anxieties about castration and submission:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The reality is that submitting ourselves under this Bill to the decision-making processes and the cosh of the European Council is not only completely humiliating to this country, but has put us in an impossible situation under the withdrawal agreement. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
....The Council of Ministers will be making laws for probably up to four years, when this House, as I said the other day, will be politically castrated in relation to the European treaties, which will have entire competence over us and all laws.... </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
....[T]he idea of our subjecting ourselves to the European Council as well as to the European Parliament is about as humiliating as anybody could imagine. I suppose we are not supposed to say this but it happens to be true: we saved Europe twice in the last 100 years, yet we are now, as a result of this withdrawal agreement and these provisions, subjugating ourselves to the decisions taken by 27 other member states by majority vote. </blockquote>
Of course, everyone else has been bringing up World War II as well. Johnson himself compared our European partners to Hitler and the SS; Mark Francois told us that his dad had been at D Day; and Daniel Kawczynski mused that an "ungrateful EU" appeared to have forgotten that Britain had "helped to liberate half of Europe". Not all Brexiteers are so embarrassingly candid in parading the personal and
emotional inadequacies that drive their zealotry; but enough are. The one constant is an astonishing refusal to accept the most obvious feature of the negotiations with the EU, and indeed any negotiations about anything: that the stronger party will get better terms than the weaker one.<br />
<br />
There is a cheap point to be made here about Brexit and toxic masculinity - maybe men are too emotional to be allowed to hold political power. But the Lady Macbeths of Brexit have been no better. Priti Patel suggested that threatening Ireland's food supply would serve us as a useful bargaining chip. Suella Braverman preached to the Bruges Group about "cultural
Marxism", a conspiracy theory with antisemitic overtones,
earning herself a rebuke from the Jewish Board of
Deputies. The sinister weirdo known as Ann Widdecombe emerged to compare the EU to slavery. Kate Hoey denounced the Good Friday Agreement and suggested that the Irish border problem could be solved by Ireland helpfully leaving the EU together with us.<br />
<br />
And while all this is happening, the world looks on. Few people still talk unironically about "Global Britain" - or "Empire 2.0", to give the policy its mocking nickname. When Boris Johnson wrote that the problem with Africa was that it is no longer ruled by white Europeans; when he recited Kipling in a Burmese Buddhist temple ("Come you back, you English soldier!"); when the ERG called for a new Falklands defence force; when May's government insisted on clinging on to Diego Garcia, unsupported by almost anyone except the likes of Trump's America and Orban's Hungary; when Jake Berry proposed building a new royal yacht... one can understand how everyone in Britain who can muster an Irish grandmother has been scrambling to fill in a passport application. The national brand has been dynamited as surely as Ratners or the <i>News of the World</i>.<br />
<br />
And then there is the wider fallout of Brexit - the horrendous polarisation that it has caused within British society. Brexit is, after all, not so much about EU membership as it is about identity, tribe and loyalty (and, whisper it, race). The tape of Johnson's row with Carrie Symonds was a watershed moment in this regard. There was enough in there to raise disturbing questions, but not enough to prove that Johnson had behaved abusively. Yet reactions to the tape <i>broke down almost perfectly along predetermined lines</i>. Very few people said that the evidence was inconclusive and we should suspend judgement until we knew more. Johnson's opponents jumped on the idea that he had asssaulted Symonds, while his supporters were far too eager to dismiss the episode as an ordinary domestic argument. (Oddly enough, this eagerness didn't make sense as conventional political partisanship - Symonds is a Tory, and any
damage to Johnson would have helped Jeremy Hunt, another Tory.) The same thing happened with Mark Field: although we had the video in that case and could see clearly how difficult his behaviour was to defend. In any event, this automatic knee-jerk separation of people into opposing camps is disturbing. It has been said it is a sign that we are slipping into an American-style culture war. This claim is a little naive about the depths of past divisions in British society - Margaret Thatcher's decade in office wasn't exactly a time of peace and harmony - but it is true enough to be troubling.<br />
<br />
The EU, by contrast, has had a good Brexit. No-one else is looking at Britain and saying "you know what, that went really well - let's try it". The lasting legacy of our nationalist right is to have achieved the very thing that British foreign policy has tried
for centuries to prevent: the existence of a bloc of European states united in opposition to the UK. Well done, chaps. Good show.Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-42713995739854580862019-04-07T13:09:00.001+01:002019-04-07T19:46:00.948+01:00Myths of Brexit - A NoteThe 17 million voted for a "no deal" Brexit. A customs union with the EU - let alone membership of the single market - would be a betrayal of the referendum result.<br />
<br />
That is what we are currently told by the more zealous Brexiteers. But are these claims true?<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
As early as January 2016, Remain advertising was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2016/jan/07/eu-referendum-in-campaign-ad-pokes-fun-at-rivals-video">pointing out</a> that Leavers were divided on what the UK's future relationship with the EU ought to be. In March 2016, Boris Johnson switched within days from talking about a Canadian-style free trade agreement to advocating "associate membership" along the lines of Turkey, which is in a customs union with the EU.<br />
<br />
This sort of message indiscipline was anathema to Dominic Cummings, the director of Vote Leave. He deliberately decided not to allow the campaign to be become embroiled in debates over the future relationship:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
No one knows what the single market is. The MPs don't know what the single market is! No one knows! No one will know what it is by the end of this campaign. Period. [Source: Tim Shipman, <i>All Out War</i>, p244]</blockquote>
This helps to explain why it was not until as late as 19 April - mere weeks before the poll - that Michael Gove <a href="http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/michael_gove_the_facts_of_life_say_leave.html">announced</a> on behalf of Vote Leave that post-Brexit Britain would not seek to retain its membership of the single market. In doing so, however, he insisted that Britain would remain integrated into the European economic system:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
There is a free trade zone stretching from Iceland to Turkey that all European nations have access to, regardless of whether they are in or out of the euro or EU. After we vote to leave we will remain in this zone. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The suggestion that Bosnia, Serbia, Albania and the Ukraine would stay part of this free trade area - and Britain would be on the outside with just Belarus - is as credible as Jean-Claude Juncker joining UKIP.</blockquote>
The notion that the UK would leave without a deal - the Belarus option - was not even on the radar screen. Turkey, as noted, is in a customs union with the EU; and Bosnia, Serbia, Albania and Ukraine have all signed up to partial participation in the single market.<br />
<br />
From this point onwards, the official Leave line seemed to be that the UK would retain the economic benefits of single market membership without the costs. This impossible aspiration subsequently became known among Remainers as "cake", based on a notorious comment by Boris Johnson. Brexiteers themselves described their untenable position using the weaselly phrase "access to" - as opposed to "membership of" - the single market. On 8 May, <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/08051604.pdf">Michael Gove told</a> Andrew Marr:<br />
<blockquote>
We should be outside the single market. We should have access to the single market, but we should not be governed by the rules that the European Court of Justice imposes on us, which cost business and restrict freedom.</blockquote>
This was incoherent. Participating in the single market without ECJ jurisdiction is impossible. The single market only works because its members agree to follow a single rulebook enforced by a single court. The court isn't an optional extra. It is essential to the system. From this perspective, "access to" the single market was a highly misleading phrase. <i>Every</i> country in the world has "access to" the single market in the literal sense of being able to do business with it; but the phrase was clearly designed to imply some sort of cake-like close relationship. It was a classic piece of political dishonesty.<br />
<br />
Nevertheless, the canard of "access to" the single market persisted. This may have been what Daniel Hannan was trying to say when he made his <a href="https://youtu.be/zzykce4oxII?t=308">infamous comment</a> in May 2015 that "absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market". Elsewhere in the same interview, he compared post-Brexit Britain to Switzerland, which has a vaguely cake-like relationship with the EU by virtue of being largely integrated into the single market without formally being a member. Going back to the referendum campaign, on 9 May 2016, Hannan <a href="https://capx.co/remain-campaign-is-misleading-voters-on-the-single-market/">wrote an article</a> in which he rubbished the idea that the UK would be left outside the European trading system:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Britain would find itself in the same position as every other non-EU state in Europe – that is, part of a European free trade area by dint of an intergovernmental treaty. Andorra, Bosnia, the Faroes, Iceland, Jersey, Macedonia, Monaco, Montenegro, Serbia, Switzerland, Turkey – all trade freely with the EU while making their own laws....</blockquote>
<blockquote>
The only geographically European states that don’t have unhindered access to EU markets are Belarus and Russia. No one seriously thinks that that would be Britain’s future.</blockquote>
The significance of these examples is that they include both states within the single market (e.g. Iceland) and states in a customs union with the EU (e.g. Turkey), as well as Switzerland. The only "no deal" states in Europe, as Hannan accurately wrote, are Belarus and Russia. And he seemed very sure that "[n]o one seriously thinks" that the UK would end up like them.<br />
<br />
Moving on - on 26 May, David Davis <a href="http://www.daviddavismp.com/david-davis-gives-a-speech-making-the-case-for-brexit/">gave a speech</a> in which he explicitly rejected the idea that Britain would be left with no deal and compelled to trade on WTO terms:<br />
<blockquote>
They cannot afford the threat being levelled at Britain, so called “WTO terms”, because they would involve a 10% levy on all car imports. A German Chancellor would have to avoid this, particularly in an election year.... Indeed the first calling point of the UK’s negotiator in the time immediately after Brexit will not be Brussels, it will be Berlin, to strike the deal: absolute access for German cars and industrial goods, in exchange for a sensible deal on everything else.</blockquote>
He went on to say that the UK would only be "forced back onto WTO terms" if "everybody behaves irrationally". "I do not believe for a moment that that will happen", he added for good measure.<br />
<br />
(This speech, incidentally, has gone on to be remembered as a classic example of the "German car makers" fallacy - the notion that domestic German industrial interests would force the German government, and therefore the EU, to give Britain the cake it wanted. This myth seems to be traceable back to an article written in December 2015 by an LSE researcher who <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2015/12/03/europes-potential-responses-to-a-british-withdrawal-from-the-union-will-be-determined-by-ideas-interests-institutions-the-international-and-individuals/">suggested that</a>
German car manufacturers would insist that the German government go
easy on the UK. His source was a May 2015 <a href="https://europe.autonews.com/article/20150521/ANE/150529987/automakers-fears-grow-over-possible-uk-exit-from-eu">article</a> in a car
industry bulletin which warned generically about the impact of Brexit on the
industry, although without suggesting that this would translate into political
leverage.)<br />
<br />
On 10 June 2016, less than two weeks before polling day, the <i>Guardian</i> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says">reported</a> that some (unnamed) politicians were talking about using the Remain majority in Parliament to keep Britain in the single market if Leave won. This idea was instantly rejected - but not, interestingly, by Leave campaigners. The rejection came from Wolfgang Schaeuble, the German Finance Minister. Perhaps he hadn't heard David Davis' speech. Vote Leave seemed to regard Schaeuble's comments as unhelpful, and were quick to dismiss them:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The eurozone economies are dependent on trade with the UK. We are the fifth largest economy in the world, while many of them are in a desperate state due to the failing single currency. There is no question about it, Britain will still have access to the single market after we vote leave. It would be perverse of the eurozone to try to create artificial barriers – and would do far more damage to them than to anyone else.</blockquote>
This was more cake. They need us more than we need them, so they will square the circle of letting us keep the benefits of European economic integration without its costs. The same message was put forward by Boris Johnson in the Wembley debate on 20 June:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I must say that I think that it was extraordinary to hear that we would have tariffs imposed on us because everybody knows that this country receives about a fifth of Germany's entire car manufacturing output - 820,000 vehicles a year. Do you seriously suppose that they are going to be so insane as to allow tariffs to be imposed between Britain and Germany? </blockquote>
Zero tariffs require either a customs union or a free trade agreement; they are not relevant to the single market. This technical point aside, the message was clear enough. The EU would be "insane" not to let us have our cake, because of the size of our economic muscle. The same line continued to be spun by the Leave side in the immediate aftermath of the referendum. Neil Hamilton of UKIP <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/post-brexit-ukip-wants-tariff-free-access-to-eu-single-market/">insisted confusedly that</a> it would be "hugely in the interests of the European Union" to give the UK "tariff-free access to the single market". Likewise, our friend Johnson was quoted as <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-eu-referendum-single-market-brexit-a7104846.html">promising</a> something that sounded an awful lot like free movement, together with the usual cake on the single market: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. </blockquote>
A lot of Leave voters had very deliberately been voting <i>against</i> free movement, of course, and it was generally seen as an obstacle to the UK's continued participation in the single market. This point was made by none other than the legendary German car markers themselves. On 28 June, an official of the German car industry body, the VDA, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36646251">was quoted</a> as saying that the UK would have to accept free movement as the price of ongoing single market membership. He was promptly slapped down by John Redwood, who predicted that Britain could get a better deal on market access than Norway or Switzerland. Cakeism still lived.<br />
<br />
It took a long time to die. Google Trends shows that, with the exception of a brief spike in October 2017, talk of a "no deal" Brexit only really took off in July 2018, in the aftermath of the ill-fated Chequers cabinet meeting - which marked the point when it dawned on hardline nationalists that Theresa May was not going to attempt to pursue their ideas as government policy any longer. It was around the same time that hard Brexiters coined the dishonest term "world trade deal" to describe the swingeing effects of trading on WTO terms. Needless to say, no-one had heard of a "world trade deal" at the time of the referendum, and precious few even knew what the WTO was.<br />
<br />
The conclusion has to be that there is no factual basis for the idea that the voters were told that they were voting for a "no deal" Brexit, or for a hard Brexit that would exclude a customs union. On the contrary, they were repeatedly promised cake - a close economic relationship with the EU that would preserve the advantages of single market membership without its costs.<br />
<br />
But perhaps the hard Brexiteers are right. In January of this year, Boris Johnson argued that a "no deal" Brexit was "closest to what people voted for". This implies that Leave voters' preferences in 2016 were: (1) the EU27 giving in to our demands for cake, (2) no deal, and (3) striking the sort of deal with the EU27 that other countries have. They assumed that Johnny Foreigner would give us what we wanted because we're the British, and they preferred to crash out and become like Belarus rather than make any meaningful compromises. Bearing in mind what we know about the nationalist mindset, how implausible does <i>that </i>sound?Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-62984818936868314912019-04-05T11:30:00.001+01:002019-04-05T18:23:07.820+01:00The New CavaliersLast Friday, Lisa Nandy, the Labour MP for Wigan, posted an extraordinary statement on Twitter:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Today outside Parliament I and others
were accosted by people shouting f****** traitor as we tried to get in
to vote. Our staff were advised to leave the building for their own
safety. There were armed police everywhere.</blockquote>
<a name='more'></a>The Scottish MP Joanna Cherry was having a similar experience:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I’m outside Parliament just now. Very intimidatory atmosphere. Currently prevented from getting to College Green to do media.</blockquote>
Meanwhile, as thugs tried to stop legislators from doing their jobs, men dressed in black menaced nearby journalists. Effigies of Theresa May and that well-known Brexit negotiator Sadiq Khan were dragged by the neck down the street. Tommy Robinson spoke on a huge screen positioned metres away from the Cenotaph. The Leave movement had come to town. <br />
<br />
One has to stop for a moment and remind oneself that this was not the Spanish Second Republic or Perón's Argentina, but the United Kingdom in the second decade of the twenty-first century. The more respectable parts of the Leave movement have tried to distance
themselves from this sort of thing. <i>We weren't there for Tommy
Robinson, we'd come for the other rally down the road.</i> Yet the threat to our constitutional order doesn't come primarily from EDL skinheads, but from politicians wearing suits and ties. Nigel Farage has been growling darkly about fighting, battles, and a coming "massive backlash" against Parliament. Neil Hamilton and other Ukippers have been experimenting with referring to the PM as "Treason May". Two Government ministers, Liam Fox and the newly resigned Chris Heaton-Harris, have been seen complaining about Parliament trying to "steal Brexit" from the people. Jacob Rees-Mogg, fresh from endorsing AfD videos online, has lamented that there is now a "fundamental problem with democracy". Andrea Leadsom has spoken of Britain suffering a "military coup" without the guns. It is painful to acknowledge that we live in a country in which what Andrea Leadsom thinks about anything matters; but it is worth reminding ourselves that she was referring to the actions of MPs who were elected by 32 million people less than two years ago.<br />
<br />
The current fantasy on the Brexiteer fringe is that Theresa May can be replaced with a strongman who will deliver the "no deal" crash-out that we are now told we voted for in 2016. It doesn't matter that Parliament is opposed to that course. Politicians
who profess profound respect for the democratic process in relation to the 2016 referendum are coming out with ideas of authoritarian rule by the
executive that have had no place in our constitutional discourse since
the 1600s. MPs and right-wing academics have proposed using the
Queen's prerogative to close Parliament until exit day, or to deny royal assent to Yvette Cooper's current bill. Antiparliamentary rhetoric is becoming part of mainstream British
political debate for the first time since the demise of the Stuart
kings. Theresa May herself even dabbled with it, in her wooden way, in her now-notorious television address of 20 March. Others have made the point more brutally. When Steve Baker MP raged
that he "could tear this place down and bulldoze it into the river", it
wasn't just ordinary political hyperbole but the distant echo of Charles I - another self-righteous Christian fundamentalist, if one with better manners and dress sense.<br />
<br />
Political tactics that should be wholly uncontroversial are being greeted with populist rage. Elected MPs taking control of their own timetable in the Commons - something that was historically the norm - is seen as a constitutional revolution. Bill Cash actually compared it to the rule of the Roundheads. Governments, we are told by people who ought to know better, are
directly responsible to the people; so Parliament doesn't matter and MPs should vote obediently for their leaders' manifestos. This is utter heresy from
the point of view of traditional British constitutional doctrine; yet it comes from people who claim to be Conservatives. Nationalism is a hell of a drug. <br />
<br />
It is noteworthy that continental
Europeans have recognised immediately what antiparliamentarian Brexiteers are up to. After all, they have a much more recent tradition of damning
parliaments as corrupt cliques that don't represent the true will of the
people. Some of them seem to be surprised that the Brits are going
down this particular road - although anyone familiar with EU27
commentary on Brexit will know that it has become something of a cliché that the famously pragmatic British have now completely lost their minds.<br />
<br />
Our continental European friends aren't wrong about this. Take a look at some headlines that I've just cut and pasted from the padded cell known as the <i>Daily Telegraph</i>'s opinion section:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Fiona Onasanya is a disgrace, but she's just one of 313 MPs who voted to sabotage Brexit<br />
<br />
Betrayed by establishment parties, Brexit voters long for a truly pro-Leave alternative <br />
<br />
In one move, Theresa May has betrayed the Conservatives and lost their biggest electoral asset<br />
<br />
I am a Party loyalist, but I can no longer support our reckless PM and this watered-down Brexit<br />
<br />
The PM's capitulation to Jeremy Corbyn makes me fear for my party and my country<br />
<br />
Time’s up for MPs like Heidi Allen who make a mockery of our democracy</blockquote>
This one, unbelievably, was in the "news" section: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Eurosceptic peers warn MPs of violent uprising if they refuse to honour referendum</blockquote>
The language of sabotage and betrayal, the populist rage at the "establishment", the demonisation of elected politicians.... For the Torygraph, this is just about generating revenue; but words have consequences. One thing that the paper's commentators are probably wrong about is the likelihood of Brexiteers abandoning the Conservative Party. Hardline nationalists tried to switch to UKIP in 2015, but the electoral system made sure that it didn't work - they are now much more likely to try to take control of the Tory party machine. Yet the anger towards the UK's quintessential establishment political party is real enough. The historic mission of the Conservative Party has been to channel our country's right-wing loonies into a vaguely mainstream form of politics. It has performed this task with varying degrees of success; but now it seems incapable of performing it at all.<br />
<br />
So where do we go now? Civil disobedience? Violent direct action? Last week, police discovered an attempt to use sabotage devices to disrupt the railways in Nottinghamshire and Cambridgeshire. The devices bore the slogans "Government betrayal. Leave means leave" and "We will bring this country to its knees if we
don’t leave". We don't know who did it, but it's a fair bet that they couldn't explain to you how the Irish backstop works. The plot was laughable rather than dangerous, but the
next one won't be. Just read that last slogan again.Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-350597218093472102019-03-15T16:51:00.003+00:002019-03-16T19:58:38.978+00:00Two Weeks to Brexit - The End of GloryIt is now two weeks until 29 March - the date on which the United Kingdom will leave the European Union, unless a withdrawal agreement or a delay to our exit date is agreed at the last minute. Now is as good a time as any to reflect on the dire position that we are in and how we have got here. This will not be a short article, or a good-tempered one.<br />
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If and when Brexit happens, it will not only amount to a self-inflicted economic and political wound. It will be the death of an idea of Britishness - a vision of Britain as a modern, liberal nation, a leader of the democratic West and a member of the European Union. This was probably not an idea that ever had majority support, although it briefly came close to it for a moment back in the 90s, some time between Geri Halliwell's union
jack dress and the revival of immigration as a major political issue - back in an era when Conservative cabinet ministers talked openly about joining
the Euro. It was later briefly sighted during Danny Boyle's opening ceremony for the 2012 Olympics. But by then it was too late. The vision of Britian that was then starting to prevail was an older, narrower and meaner one: the arrogance and self-entitlement of the imperial age wedded to the Little Englander mentality of a small island. <i>Two World Wars and one World Cup!</i> Brexit will be an experiment in what happens when primitive emotionalism about immigrants taking our jobs and being ruled by foreigners comes up against the realities of the interdependent modern world. Future generations will study it as a case history in collective insanity, the Tulip Mania of the 21st century.<br />
<br />
The divide that Brexit has exposed is one that goes back long before the EU referendum, and indeed long before there was an EU to be a member of. It is also a divide that too many of us assured ourselves couldn't exist here - not here in Britain, with her stable political system and pragmatic political culture. It was an arrogant complacency based on the idea that we were <i>different</i>. Nationalist zealotry was for <i>other </i>people - those poor chaps in Northern Ireland; the Jews and Arabs in Israel or Palestine or whatever it was called; the Germans back in the Nazi era, obviously. "Culture wars" were what those loony Americans had, and we could afford to smile at their silly notions about guns and gays. We British were above that sort of thing. We were a <i>serious </i>country.<br />
<br />
Insofar as any of this was ever true, it certainly isn't now.<br />
<br />
<b>The revolution devours her children</b><br />
<br />
Brexit is a kind of revolution, and it is a cliché to say that revolutions have a self-radicalising dynamic: they become more extreme and intolerant the longer they go on. The Eurosceptic movement in Britain was never exactly a model of tolerant inclusivity; but since the 2016 referendum it has taken on the characteristics of a cult.<br />
<br />
Experience teaches that it is a mistake to undertake a major international realignment on the basis of the policies of one party, let alone one faction in one party. When we joined the EEC, it followed years of negotiations pursued by both Conservative and Labour administrations; and Heath's final deal was voted through on the back of support from Labour MPs. After Leave won the referendum, the obvious course of action would have been to build a coalition of support for a future relationship with the EU that would command cross-party backing and endure into the future. This was not just the morally correct option; it would also have had the advantages of providing badly needed stability and drawing off enough Remain voters to end any lingering controversy over the referendum result. David Cameron, in the tail end of his premiership, showed that he understood this and paved the way for his successor to build a broad-based consensus on Brexit. But he reckoned without Theresa May. May abandoned this approach completely. Her initial announcement of a hard Brexit policy, at the 2016 Conservative Party conference, was decided on by her and Nick
Timothy alone; not even the cabinet was asked for its approval. Her infamous Lancaster House speech in January 2017 was a bit more widely
consulted on, but not that much. The Article 50 letter itself was kept
so secret that not even David Davis saw it until the day before it was sent.<br />
<br />
We may never know what May thought she was doing, but it is clear by now that her unilateral embrace of a hard Brexit was a disastrous mistake. It had the effect of aligning her with the bitterest and most vicious faction of the Tory Right - people who had no hesitation in turning on her when, after Chequers, she inevitably failed to meet their impossible standards of ideological purity. These people had spent the last half century feeling professionally betrayed; and the likes of John Redwood, Christopher Chope and Peter Bone were not about to start behaving like reasonable adults at this stage of the game. It was no more likely that Steve Baker was going to stand up in the Commons and say "you know what, not everyone agrees with our views so we should probably show a bit of flexibility" than that Jeremy Corbyn would say that he could sort of understand where Tony Blair was coming from. The ERGers' behaviour since May started making the compromises necessary to get us out of the EU has been predictably obnoxious and infantile. They would say, of course, that the referendum entitles them to do
this. One answer to this is that their favoured option of "no deal" goes directly against what Leave voters were promised. Another is that they were acting in the same way years before
anyone had even thought of having a referendum. They would be behaving like this anyway. It's what they're like. All that the referendum did was
to hand them a couple of useful rhetorical lines to use in interviews about the 17 million and the "will of the people".<br />
<br />
Her party aside, May's decision to go hard early also had the effect of empowering the worst elements in British society at large. Ruling out a soft Brexit as early as autumn 2016 raised expectations that could never be met. The result is that people who didn't even know what the customs union <i>was </i>three years ago now insist that we must leave it, using all the blood-curdling rhetoric of treachery and treason. Part of this is bog-standard nationalism of the sort that exists in every country. That is a matter for psychiatrists. But the more interesting aspect of this phenomenon is that it is distinctly British. It isn't just that these guys are refusing to compromise - so that the only acceptable Brexit is one that excludes every possible continental influence from British life - it's that they <i>genuinely</i> <i>think that they can get away with it</i>. They honestly, sincerely believed that the EU would give us cake and unicorns because we're the British. Some critics on the left have taken to saying that Brexiteers are "disaster capitalists" who are actively seeking the chaos of "no deal" in order to increase the profits on their stocks and shares. But this is a misreading of the situation. These guys really, truly believed their own propaganda about "the easiest deal in history" - and they are genuinely enraged that the EU didn't cave. This is where the small-dicked rhetoric about "punishment", "humiliation" and so forth comes from. It stems from a basic confusion between a country being sovereign and a country being able to do whatever it wants. The key point is that this is
a mistake that only a former empire would make. This is why Brexit is so obviously the symptom of a post-imperial hangover. We went almost immediately from the end of empire to joining the EEC, and we haven't had enough experience of world powers telling us that we can't have things that we want. Yet.<br />
<br />
Oddly enough, Leave politicians themselves draw on the vocabulary of the imperial period when they talk about Britain becoming a "colony", a "vassal state", and so on. This rhetoric is not only ridiculous on its face - we're talking about a customs union, for Christ's sake! - it is also despicably insulting to the many countries around the world who really <i>have</i> been turned into colonies at the hands of the British, starting with Ireland. Ah yes, Ireland. One of the saddest casualties of Brexit has been the trashing of relations between our two countries. The work done on building goodwill and reconciliation - a process that finally seemed to have succeeded
at the time of the Queen's visit to the Republic in 2011 - has been doused in petrol and set alight. Attitudes towards "Eire" are being openly expressed that should have been dead and buried a century ago. On the BBC's flagship <i>Today</i> programme, John Humphrys asked an Irish government minister with apparent seriousness whether she thought that Ireland should leave the EU and rejoin the UK - a question that would, rightly, leave an Englishman in need of medical attention if he asked it in a bar around the Dublin docks.<br />
<br />
But the Brexiteers can only huff and puff. The true power relations between our two countries were exposed a few hours ago when Leo Varadkar appealed to the EU to be "generous" to Britain. In context, Varadkar's quote was well intentioned - he was clearly not trying to talk down to anyone - but the dynamics were clear. Generosity is what a superior shows to an inferior. And the fact that Britain is being held to its obligations to Ireland over the backstop arrangements is a symptom of a wider imbalance of power. Brexiteers cannot admit this imbalance, even to themselves. Especially to themselves. So, in order to preserve the delusion that the UK is still one of the big boys in the playground, they have spent the last three years thinking up arguments for why we actually hold all the cards in a negotiation against a power bloc which has over five times our GDP. German car makers will save us; the EU need our intelligence co-operation; they can't afford to survive without our divorce payments. Any argument would do, as long as it supported the prescribed conclusion. A process could be observed whereby these and other arguments were fashioned by a small circle of professional Brexiteer politicians and activists in London, and then repeatedly loudly at grassroots level by pub bores and social media users who bought them uncritically without really understanding what they were saying.<br />
<br />
To that extent, Brexit is the triumph of ignorance and misinformation over truth. But I wonder if this criticism doesn't miss the mark. Brexiteers aren't Brexiteers because someone has failed to point out unnoticed facts to them. You rarely convert someone to the Remain cause by explaining why the ERG are talking nonsense about Article 24 of GATT. As for those people who didn't know what the customs union was until yesterday - well, perhaps they knew enough. They might not know a tariff rate quota if it shoved itself up their arse, but
they know that they don't want to be ruled by a gang of damn foreigners - and that is what this is really about.<br />
<br />
As for being ruled by foreigners, we will have many, many years in which to discover the reality of negotiating as an outsider with the EU - and the USA, China, India and Japan. An early taste of this has come with the spectacle of Brexiteers like Farage publicly lobbying other EU member states to veto an Article 50
extension. People who spent 45 years complaining falsely about
Britain's destiny being controlled by foreign powers have wound up trying to
bring about that very situation.<br />
<br />
<b>The edge of reason</b><br />
<br />
As is always the case in any cause involving the far right, what's ultimately at risk with Brexit isn't outsiders or minorities - although they certainly <i>are</i> at risk - it's the safety of the system as a whole. Movements that start out by scapegoating immigrants (or Jews, or LGBT people) rarely <i>stay </i>that way.<br />
<br />
It is not an exaggeration to say that Parliamentary democracy itself is being actively delegitimised. Anti-Parliamentarian
rhetoric is becoming a feature of British political life for the first time
since the Civil War. We have been treated to the spectacle of
more-or-less mainstream politicians - Liam Fox, Nigel Farage, John
Redwood - complaining that Parliament is failing to represent the true will
of the people. The same Weimar-era gibberish has been heard from pro-Brexit media
commentators like Lord Digby Jones and David Blake. Even the normally
more-reasonable-than-thou Daniel Hannan has been seen experimenting with the
idea that MPs are in the pocket of a foreign power. The
idea that Parliament is illegitimate is not merely an exceptionally
dangerous idea in its own right; it is one that every previous
generation of Conservatives would have rejected out of hand without a
moment's hesitation. Time was when a belief that Parliament is a corrupt clique that obstructs true popular rule was found only among revolutionary Marxists; today it is held by Tory cabinet ministers.<br />
<br />
And if Parliament should fail to do what the Brexiteers want? The worst and most disreputable Brexiteer Tories - Jacob Rees-Mogg, Chris Grayling - have warned that it will lead to an upsurge in support for the far right. Nice political system you've got there. Wouldn't want to see anything happen to it. Mind how you go. No doubt Mr Rees-Mogg will be returning to our screens soon to warn that the Government must adopt socialist policies in order to prevent Momentum supporters from kicking off. Or perhaps it doesn't work that way.<br />
<br />
At any rate, real violence is closer than any of us would like to admit. The "yellow vests" who have been blocking Westminster Bridge and burning EU flags may be a sign of things to come. Remainer MPs have been warned by the police to limit their
movements for
their own personal safety. Three people - three people! - have been jailed for threats against one
single politician (Anna Soubry). There is no real parallel to this sort of thing in recent history other than the Troubles, and possibly the Miners' Strike - great precedents that those are. Is the state starting to lose its
monopoly on force? We'll find out when the next economic downturn comes and the Tommy Robinsons of this world come looking for scapegoats. Of course, while all this is going on, some people are advising us to move on because there's nothing to see here. People like
Daniel Hannan, the Comical Ali of the Brexiteer right, who pops up
every so often to explain that Brexit isn't actually about nationalism
at all, that Leavers really like immigrants, and that all
they want is lower business regulation. It's not just a
river in Egypt, as they say.<br />
<br />
Sinister extra-Parliamentary threats have gone hand in hand with a collapse in the quality of British political life. Say what you like about them, David Cameron, Gordon Brown and John Major were serious people. Professionals. So was Tony Blair, up to a point. But what have we got now? A political class dominated by cranks and charlatans like Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn and Michael Gove, and empty suits like Philip Hammond and Keir Starmer. Theresa May is a hopeless and profoundly flawed prime minister, but she does at least perform the function of making some of her colleagues look good. It seems that behind every Paddy Ashdown is a Vince Cable, and behind every Alastair Campbell a Seumas Milne. The decline has been remarkably quick. When Ken Clarke speaks from the Conservative benches, it already sounds like a voice from another age.<br />
<br />
It doesn't help that parts of the British internal debate are suddenly being watched by
the world. When Jacob Rees-Mogg defended British concentration camps in the Boer War, continental Europeans watched the footage online with utter incredulity (so, I'm told, did the South Africans). Jeremy Hunt's comparison of the EU to the Soviet Union went down like a cup of cold sick with politicians from mainland Europe who had actually
lived under Soviet rule and grasped the difference. The revealing thing here is the lack of self-awareness. Hunt clearly had no idea that he would get in trouble for his remarks, because he was talking to a domestic audience consisting of the kind of people who think it clever to leave
comments on the <i>Guardian </i>website about the "EUSSR". He had no idea that any foreigners would notice; despite him being the Foreign Secretary.<br />
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No-one can really know what is going to happen next. It is even possible that Brexit will be cancelled - although a second referendum with a 52% Remain victory would not deal with any of the fundamental problems that I have mentioned. Whatever happens, though, we can be sure that the nationalist right wing will not be appeased. They are likely to furnish the next Prime Minister; and, perhaps worst of all, there is no mainstream liberal opposition party that is waiting in the wings to stop them.Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-52293595055377746802018-08-04T17:41:00.001+01:002018-08-04T17:43:21.688+01:00Modern Britain explained in one graph<br />
<img alt="" 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" /> <br />
Source: Clarke, Goodwin and Whiteley, <i>Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union</i>Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-17313659884984596082018-07-29T18:33:00.001+01:002018-07-29T18:33:46.906+01:00The origins of right-wing populism - Where did UKIP come from?It is a bit of a cliché to say that populism is on the rise across the Western world. In this post, I want to look briefly at the history of right-wing populism in Britain. The Brexit project is heavily indebted to this style of politics, and looking at its roots may help to clarify what is at stake in Britain's decision to leave the European Union.<br />
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First, we need to pin down what it is that we're talking about. As with any political idea, there are different ways of defining right-wing populism; but it is probably accurate enough to say that the phenomenon has three broad elements: <br />
<ul>
<li>Right-wing populists claim to act in the interests of the broad mass of "the people" or "the nation", rather than a particular class or interest group.</li>
<li>Their agenda is grounded in a commitment to conservative ideas - nation, race, religion, the patriarchal family - rather than left-wing ideas about social revolution and the abolition of inequality (although it may incorporate some left-wing elements, as in "national socialism").</li>
<li>They claim that action is urgently needed because the nation is currently in the grip of malign forces - an alien, unpatriotic élite which despises ordinary people. This element lends itself to conspiracy theories which purport to explain how the élite got there and how it operates.</li>
</ul>
What are the origins of this cluster of ideas? Where do our present-day populists - UKIP and a large chunk of the Leave movement - come from?<br />
<br />
There were already traces of all three elements in the nineteenth century. As the franchise was gradually extended, "the people" became a political force for the first time. Conservative politicians - most famously, Benjamin Disraeli and Lord Randolph Churchill - tried to build a mass following among the new voters under the slogan "Tory Democracy". Conversely, some observers noticed that progressive politics attracted some wealthy people of liberal views who had no real understanding of the people whose interests they claimed to represent (see, for example, the satirical novel <i>The Monks of Thelema</i> (1878) by Walter Besant and James Rice). But no-one really drew all these strands together into a coherent political philosophy which could serve as a basis for a mass movement.<br />
<br />
Disraeli came closest. He worked out a theory in which Britain had come under the rule of a rich, unpatriotic "Whig oligarchy", while the vast majority of the country was composed of salt-of-the-earth peasants who were devoted to the monarchy and the Church of England. But Disraeli was a colourful character, and in Victorian Britain his theory stood out as decidedly eccentric. He was successful enough at the ballot box, but it is doubtful that many of the new middle- and lower-income Tory voters knew or cared about the old boy's musings on the "Whig oligarchy".<br />
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The first right-wing populist movement in British history emerged in the twentieth century, and you have probably already guessed what it was. Yes, that's right - Oswald Mosley's British Union of Fascists. Mosley's rhetoric exalted "the people" and claimed that they were the victims of the "almost limitless corruption of a decadent system". A fascist disctatorship would be the instrument through which they would win back power for themselves:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The will of the people shall prevail. The policy for which the people have voted shall be carried out. This is the essence of good government in an enlightened age. This is the principle which is denied by the system misnamed democracy, which in degeneration is more appropriately called financial democracy.... When the Government elected by the people is incapable of rapid and effective action private and vested interests assume the real power of Government, not by vote or permission of the people, but by power of money dubiously acquired. [Oswald Mosley, <i>Tomorrow We Live</i>]</blockquote>
In Mosley's narrative, the part of the corrupt unpatriotic élite was played by international financiers and newspaper barons, at least some of whom were presumed to be Jews. Mosley took this rhetoric straight from continental European fascist movements, who had got it in turn from earlier conspiracy propaganda like the <i>Protocols of the Elders of Zion</i>. In this line of thinking, liberal democracy is a fraud: it holds out the promise of popular rule, but in practice it means the rule of weak, corrupt politicians who are manipulated behind the scenes by wealthy, treacherous minority groups. The true will of the people can be executed only by a strong leader who is in tune with the soul of the nation and can cut through the deceits of parliamentarianism and sham freedoms. Precisely who the treacherous minority groups <i>were</i> differed according to who you asked. The most elaborate conspiracy model was put forward by the leader of the French far right, Charles Maurras (1868-1952), who thought that traditional, Catholic, royalist France had been taken over by the "four confederate states" of Jews, Protestants, immigrants and Freemasons. This lunatic theory went back to conservatives' attempts to explain why the French Revolution of 1789 had happened: the common people loved the King and the priests, so it must have been a conspiracy. This history is of more than just academic interest: Steve Bannon, the alt-right <i>caporegime </i>who is getting friendly with Boris Johnson, is a fan of Maurras. It is also useful to bear the history in mind when listening to Brexiteers complaining that the "will of the people" is being thwarted by politicians in Parliament and their élitist Europhile chums, or when confronted with exchanges of tweets like this:<br />
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" /></div>
<br />
After fascism was defeated in World War II, hard-right politics in Britain fell on hard times. It took mass immigration in the 1950s and 60s to resurrect the right-wing populist cause. The National Front was formed in 1967; but the real rebirth of the populist right came in the form of Powellism - the movement against immigration and EEC membership associated with Enoch Powell. Powell was a middle-class Conservative who seems to have wanted to be accepted as an aristocratic establishment man. From the 1960s onwards, however, he turned into a blood-curdling demagogue, winning the support of large numbers of nationalist working-class voters in the process ("Many Labour members are quite good Tories"). The rise of Powellism is associated with the old lunatic's 1968 "rivers of blood" speech - famously, the first expressions of grassroots support for the speech came not from wealthy shire Tories but from London dockers and meat porters. Powell was prepared to knife his own party in pursuit of his mystical, Wagnerian idea of nationhood - when Labour promised a referendum on EEC membership in the 1974 elections, he persuaded enough of his supporters to vote Labour that the Conservatives were narrowly denied a return to power.<br />
<br />
Powellism did not begin in 1968. The parliamentary debates on Britain's first anti-racist legislation, the Race Relations Act 1965, show that all the motifs that were later associated with Powellism were in place several years before Enoch opened his mouth. Here, for example, was a speech made by Lord Elton (who was a member of the Labour Party):<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Wherever there has been mass immigration there is widespread and deep seated resentment—not prejudice against the colour of the immigrants, but resentment against their overwhelming numbers, against their sudden arrival, and against the varied social evils to which, not the individual immigrant but the mass immigration itself inevitably gives rise. And yet, if ever a dweller in a back street wishes to voice his legitimate grievances against some distress or disorder in his neighbourhood, he knows already, only too well, that somebody, and very possibly somebody far removed from the back street and from contact with immigration, is likely to accuse him of racialism....<br />
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My Lords, those who live in these back streets can be extremely caustic about advice on racial problems emanating from the Cotswolds or from Hampstead Garden Suburb, or even from Westminster, if the source is someone who is not living in close and constant contact with an area of mass immigration. As one of my correspondents wrote to me, "Let her come and integrate with us in Plaistow". These people feel that their legitimate grievances have been ignored by politicians, of all Parties, who have constantly hesitated to discuss them in public. At the General Election, there was something very like a general conspiracy of silence as to immigration.... </blockquote>
It is worth noting here that the phrase "liberal élite" first gained popularity in the 1960s - although it also experienced a big jump during the New Labour years, as Tony and Cherie Blair (and Peter Mandelson, Harriet Harman, <i>et al.</i>) were a propaganda gift for those who wanted to get people to believe that the country was run by a well-heeled, out-of-touch élite.<br />
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Powellism faded out in the 1970s, as Britain's economic problems came to
eclipse immigration as a political issue and the 1975 referendum devastated the anti-European cause. The first postwar wave of immigration had subsided, and
anti-immigrant politics didn't regain its purchase until the second wave
began to get going in the 1990s. Margaret Thatcher inherited many of Powell's former supporters, but Thatcherism really came from a different political tradition. Sure, Thatcher had half-baked ideas about British greatness and the weakness of the "wet" establishment; but her electoral strategy was that of a conservative capitalist rather than a Powellite populist. She didn't have the imagination to understand Powell's romantic nationalism, and her policies were aimed not at "the people" as a metaphysical entity but at what she called "our people": middle-income
voters who thought that Labour had mishandled the economy and held back aspiration.<br />
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The seeds of the next upsurge of right-wing populism were sown on Tony Blair's watch. A mixture of Blair's disregard for Labour's core working-class vote and his incompetent immigration policies created a fertile ground for populist nationalism. Conservative politicians weren't sure how to respond. Some experimented with right-wing populism; but the liberalising current in their party was strong in those years. The smarter Tories realised that swing voters in marginal constituencies were left cold by the sight of the likes of Ann Widdecombe denouncing the metropolitan liberal élite. The conversion of the Tories to Blairite centrism was exemplified by their ruthless ditching of the anti-EU obsessive Iain Duncan Smith, who had been unexpectedly elected as leader by the party's unreconstructed membership, and their embrace of the hoodie-hugging David Cameron.<br />
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Yet if the Conservatives were happy to flirt with centrism, there was another vehicle ready to take advantage of the growing demand for a more robust form of rightism. UKIP had originally been founded in 1993, and for many years it had served as a home for right-wing ex-Tories who were more likely to <i>be</i> the establishment than to want to burn it down. The archetypal UKIPper of the 90s was a retired stockbroker who would buttonhole you in a golf club bar and complain that joining the Euro would mean the Queen's head being taken off our money, not a skinhead on his way to a Tommy Robinson march. But this changed. During David Cameron's years in office, UKIP's <a href="http://mediotutissimus.blogspot.com/2016/12/revolt-on-right-by-robert-ford-and.html">support took off</a>, as it turned into a smash-the-system party which courted voters who felt disaffected from the political mainstream. The British Election Study found that it had more working-class supporters than Labour, which explains Nigel Farage's hastily discovered love for the NHS and criticism of the Chequers deal as a "<span style="color: black;">sell-out to the global corporates". UKIP is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/25/ukip-welcomes-social-media-activists-linked-to-alt-right-into-party">now courting</a> social media trolls whom mainstream politicians would once have refused to touch, as well as embracing outright conspiracy theories (such as "cultural Marxism", an American alt-right theory which claims that modern liberal politics are a disguised new iteration of communism).</span><br />
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<span style="color: black;">I think I have said enough now, and the point does not need to be laboured. History is not destiny, and political ideas are not necessarily tainted by their origins. But there is reason to be suspicious of a movement whose history can be traced back through Enoch Powell and the Blackshirts to Charles Maurras and the <i>Protocols of Zion</i>. There is also a point to be made about the follies of conservative politicians who think that they can partner with right-wing populists and expect to keep control of the outcome - but that will have to wait for another time.</span>Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-28679211649269427262018-07-22T20:59:00.002+01:002018-07-25T17:16:39.882+01:00Brexit - Two LessonsThis post is about two lessons that we, as a nation, are learning from Brexit. In a reversal of the usual order, the first is farce and the second is tragedy.<br />
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The first lesson comes from the basic frivolity of the Brexit debate. The whole debacle has shown what an unserious country we have become. It is a cliché to say that modern democratic politics has become a species of entertainment. It was said when the old B-movie star Ronald Reagan entered the White House, and in the age of Donald Trump the intertwining of showbusiness and affairs of state has become more intimate then ever before. Here in Britain, we have entrusted political power to sketch show characters - the eccentric toff figure, first Boris Johnson, then Jacob Rees-Mogg. It somehow seems natural when Danny Dyer is held up as an incisive and perceptive commentator on Brexit.<br />
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Any of us can climb up on the stage at any moment and join in the show. It doesn't matter that the Brexit negotiations go deep into notoriously complex areas like international trade law and the interlocking regimes for financial services regulation that even industry professionals struggle fully to
understand. Anyone can now be an expert on these matters, or at least perform as one, which is the same. Anyone can grab a microphone and become a political Susan Boyle. You can find breezy assertions about what the EU's negotiators will and will not agree to by people whose experience of international diplomacy is confined to filling in a passport form. You can find people delivering self-assured little lessons about the WTO and the customs union when they didn't even know that those things existed until <i>circa </i>2017. You can find yourself being instructed about Chancellor Merkel's negotiating
strategy by people who wouldn't be able to order a coffee in German. Amazingly, there are still small-minded little men on Twitter trotting out the canard about German car manufacturers saving us, long after the German <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/08/german-industry-warns-uk-over-brexit">car industry itself</a> <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/german-industry-to-uk-we-wont-undermine-single-market-over-brexit/">has warned</a> us that it won't happen. Facts don't matter. It is like living in a different, parallel world, in which some identifiable features are mixed with bizarre grotesqueries - like looking in a succession of comedy mirrors in a circus funhouse.<br />
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It is the sheer <i>unseriousness </i>that is hardest to swallow. It is not only politics as entertainment and politics as performance, but politics as <i>game</i> - like a session of Monopoly played by a group of increasingly drunk and coked-up people who don't care that they have switched to playing with real money and title deeds. Questions of the weightiest importance for the future of our country are brushed aside with slogans which it would be charitable to call half-baked. Mortgage everything, let's go for those two hotels on Mayfair. It's only a game, after all. A society that can behave like this is one that has forgotten what risk is and what it is to suffer. This level of frivolity is possible only in a country which has had several generations of peace and (very broadly speaking) economic stability - which, in one of those leaden ironies, are precisely the things that we are putting at risk by leaving the European Union.<br />
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If the farce lies in treating Brexit as a game, the tragedy lies in treating it as a religion. As with real religions, both approaches can be adopted at once.<br />
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The most obvious example of Brexit-as-religious-cult is the way in which the economic costs of the enterprise are being played down or ignored. Crashing out on WTO terms - or a "WTO deal", as Jacob Rees-Mogg is now unbelievably calling it - is such an insane idea that even some Leave activists admit that it would be an <a href="http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128">"unmitigated disaster"</a>. Leave politicians were happy to talk reassuringly before the referendum about staying in the single market and so on, but all that has gone now. That is, the reassuring talk has gone, not the desire to leave. Anna Soubry pointed out last week the alarming truth that these guys think that economic disaster is a price worth paying for the cause:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
If we do not deliver frictionless trade, either through a customs union or some magical third way that the Prime Minister thinks she can deliver—good luck to her on that—thousands of jobs will go, and hon. Members sitting on the Government Benches, in private conversations, know that to be the case. What they have said in those private conversations is that the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs will be worth it to regain our country’s sovereignty—tell that to the people who voted Leave in my constituency. </blockquote>
They know. Most of them aren't stupid (apart from IDS and Philip Davies). They <i>know</i>. Jim Jones would have called it an "act of revolutionary suicide". The breezy claims that Brexit would make us all richer have turned into grim retorts that people were warned about the risks and that Brexit is doable because we managed to get through two world wars and <a href="https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/1001882420147310592?lang=en-gb">the black death (sic)</a>. The discussion is being further poisoned by the rhetoric of Britain being "punished" by the EU (with help from domestic traitors: one of the cult's mid-ranking clerics has <a href="https://brexitcentral.com/no-deal-brexit-uk-eu-trade-wto-terms-best-hope-brexiteers/">recently written</a> that "our defeatist establishment, working hand in glove with Brussels, is humiliating the British people for their temerity in voting for Brexit"). This small-dicked rhetoric turns an economic negotiation into a duel of honour - and it is a duel which Britain, being the weaker party, cannot win. I wonder where <i>that </i>will lead.<br />
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It's not just the economy, either. It has become remorselessly clear that nothing must be allowed to stand in the way of Brexit. It is an obsession, a monomania. The courts, the civil service, the CBI on the right and the TUC on the left - even Parliament itself. Never mind the antics of the whips, the true believers - the Level 5 Thetans like Rees-Mogg - have turned from bullying the House of Lords to bullying the House of Commons and bullying the leader of the Conservative Party, the Queen's Minister. Nothing, absolutely nothing, must stand in the way of the cause. It is a demented ruthlessness. The ghosts of Burke, Sailsbury and Baldwin must be struggling to get their ectoplasmic heads around it.<br />
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And for what? Immigration is part of it, of course, but even the anti-immigrant sentiment is only one expression of a broader problem. The root of it is the legacy of the Empire, which gave rise to a belief in British exceptionalism and a mythical idea of absolute sovereignty. <span class="st">It didn't help that we went very quickly from imperial power
to EEC member without having to reflect very hard on our place in the
world (Suez was in 1956; we began EEC membership negotiations in 1961). The mindset of a vanished world empire has survived to become the ideology of a modern cult.</span> It is the mindset that led to DExEU's condescending decision to translate the Chequers white paper into other European languages (in case the foreign chaps didn't understand it...), while being too arrogant to check that the translations <a href="http://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit/95186/what-botched-white-paper-translations-say-about-brexit-priorities">actually made sense</a>. This swivel-eyed exceptionalism is shared by those politicians who claim that Brexit is a libertarian project and definitely nothing to do with racism at all - the likes of Boris Johnson, Daniel Hannan, Priti Patel, Douglas Carswell, Michael Gove and Liam Fox. These people appear to be auditioning for a very specific role in the imperial myth. They see themselves not as the colonists who bungled several Indian famines and exterminated the Tasmanian aborigines, but as the jolly jack-tars who buccanneered around the world buying and selling things in order to make money out of Johnny Foreigner - a cross between Francis Drake and Derek Trotter. Viva Hooky Street.<br />
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Boris Johnson's resignation letter and statement are a good example of where these maniacs are coming from. Sure, Johnson was undoubtedly motivated by careerism, but you can recognise the authentic voice of the deluded man who is genuinely upset that others are failing to share his delusions. He lamented that the "dream is dying". The dream. He referred to Brexit as a "vision" several times - in one case, a "glorious vision". The German chancellor Helmut Schmidt once said that if you see visions, you should see a doctor. Johnson asserted, contrary to known facts, that the EU27 rather like the hard Brexiteers' ideas, and that our only enemies are "self-doubt" and "dither[ing]". We need to be "positive", "self-confident", and filled with "hope". Johnson does not have the focus or discipline to be a real cult leader, but he certainly has the conviction that sheer faith and willpower are sufficient to assert his visions and dreams against the rough fabric of reality. He also said that Theresa May's painfully assembled compromise promises us "vassalage" and "the status of colony" - a contemptible insult to all the nations, starting with the people of Ireland, who really <i>have </i>been colonised by the British and have more to show for it than unorthodox customs arrangements. I have suggested in the past that Johnson is cynically riding the tiger of nationalism without really believing in his own tub thumping. Now I'm not so sure. I think he really does believe it.<br />
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The other Thatcherite free-trading Brexiteers really believe it, too - few people would accuse Michael Gove or Liam Fox of faking it. The neoliberal free-market version of Brexit might be somewhat less obviously obnoxious than the anti-immigrant version, but it is still based on the same cultish blindness and faith in British exceptionalism; and it ultimately leads to the same nationalistic twilight zone. The "Global Britain" and "Anglosphere" ideas make sense only as products of imperial nostalgia - and, if it ever really came down to it, the Priti Patel faction of Leave is not going to be able to control the Tommy Robinson faction any more than Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio could halt the juggernaut of the Trump movement. Daniel Hannan was recently seen in the <i>Telegraph</i> moralising about how <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/21/communism-sent-millions-deaths-cool-wear-t-shirt/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget">"Communism sent millions to their deaths"</a>. You know what else sent millions to their deaths, Dan?<br />
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One of the most disturbing things about the Brexit debate is the way in which "the will of the people" has become a cheap cliché to describe the referendum result. This isn't just the usual banal "we won, get over it" attitude that you see after every election. Nor is the problem confined to the dishonesty of using the result to justify the most extreme version of Brexit - as if 17 million people shared Jacob Rees-Mogg's view of the world. The really disturbing thing is how it renders the 48% of Remain voters utterly invisible. Lurking behind this is an old and sinister idea that dissenters are not really part of "the people", but aliens or traitors - <i>la </i><span class="st"><i>Antiespaña, </i></span><span class="st"><i><i>l'Anti-France, </i>die Volksverräter</i>.</span><br />
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<span class="st">Yes, yes, Godwin's law and all that, but this is not just scaremongering. Something quite dark is abroad at the moment. UKIP started the ball rolling by calling itself the "People's Army", a phrase which has no good connotations at all. Their supporters also experimented with the <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/ukip-trades-language-fear-and-division-left-must-not-humour-its-anti-politics">charming slogan</a> "If your not Ukip Your not BRITISH". </span>The <i>Daily Mail</i> famously called three highly respected senior judges "Enemies of the People" after they decided a case in line with a conservative interpretation of the law. The <i>Sun</i> asked "Great Britain or Great Betrayal?" when elected MPs were unwise enough to ask for a binding vote on the withdrawal agreement. <span class="st">Unbelievably, the <i>Daily Telegraph</i> has recently <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2018/07/11/theresa-may-guilty-treason-plenty-readers-think-politicians/">started</a> musing, "Is Theresa May guilty of treason?" (and this was in the wake of the Chequers deal, which - lest we forget - was based on the premise of us <u>LEAVING</u> the European Union and the larger part of its obligations).</span><br />
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<span class="st">For newspaper editors, and for rightwing rent-a-rants like Paul Staines and Tim Montgomerie, this is all in a day's work. They have to compete for readers and advertisers in a cutthroat media market, and they do what they need to do. But they are playing with fire. There are people among us who sincerely believe the stuff about treason. There are people who genuinely hate the people they claim to hate. Jo Cox is dead, and three people - three people! - are serving prison sentences for threatening to kill Anna Soubry (it is significant that both MPs are women - I doubt you could find three people who have bothered to plot the death of Ken Clarke). It is worth mentioning at this point that almost the only European countries that have not experienced a surge in right-wing populism in recent years are Spain and Portugal. These also happen to be the only countries which have actually experienced long periods of right-wing authoritarian rule in relatively recent memory. Do they know something about "Enemies of the People" politics that we don't?</span><br />
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Like it or not, t<span class="st">his is the bad trip that the drug of nationalism is taking us on. It's taking us to some other dark places too, places which are anything but favourable to Britain's actual national interests. Members of the Brexit cult were prepared to swallow a visit from a man like Donald Trump even as he threatened to wreck NATO and the WTO, attempted to replace our Prime Minister with his supposed mate Johnson, and had his ambassador lean on us to free Tommy Robinson. What can these people possibly have been <i>thinking</i>? Was part of it just the muscle-memory of old political reflexes - Republican president Good, soap-dodging protestors Bad? Or was there a deeper ideological sympathy, a recognition of a man who knows what he believes, enjoys a bit of banter about women and sticks it to the liberals and globalists? Do these solid British patriots prefer a foreign strongman to fellow citizens who voted Remain? This is all before we get into the Russians' involvement in the referendum. How many members of the People's Army would rather have Vladimir Vladimirovich negotiating Brexit than, say, Anna Soubry?</span><br />
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<span class="st">The most worrying thing of all is the Stab-in-the-Back Myth that Brexiters are already preparing. The original version of the <i>Dolchtosslegende</i> was the story told by the German right wing after World War I - the country had not been defeated fair and square on the battlefield, but by treacherous socialists and Jews at home. Being a nationalist means never having to take responsibility. The devotees of the Brexit cult are already lining up their list of scapegoats - again, without any respect for traditional taboos, because these people recognise no boundaries. Whatever happens, however awful things get, it won't be their fault. It will be ours.</span><br />
<span class="st"><b>[Update - It's already getting worse. Senior Leavers, including the awful Patrick Minford and an unnamed Cabinet minister, <a href="https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1020273165535195136">are now accusing</a> Philip Hammond of <i>deliberately damaging the economy</i> in order to teach Brexiteers a lesson.]</b></span><br />
<span class="st"><b>[Update 2 - And now a Conservative MEP <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/25/tory-mep-david-bannerman-ex-ukip-says-treason-act-should-include-extreme-eu-loyalty">has suggested that</a> "extreme EU loyalty" should be prosecuted legally as treason. That's the sort of thing that used to be said as rhetorical hyperbole, but this guy was genuinely serious. He later explained that he was "talking, for example, about the leaking of confidential information on negotiations or other confidential documents to the EU, where the intent is an anti-British one".] </b> </span><br />
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<span class="st">Brexit marks the death of the cherished British self-image of the stiff upper-lipped pragmatist. This autostereotype has had a good run - and it had quite a lot of truth in it. We stood out among most Western countries in never having had a invasion or revolution since 1688 and never having adopted fascism or communism. Foreign conservatives had absolute theocratic monarchies; we had the dear old Queen and the C of E. Foreign leftists guillotined aristocrats and shot Mensheviks; ours invented the NHS and the dole. One can debate how far this pragmatism survived once we left our small island and went into Ireland and the colonies, and how far it was down to accidents of history and geography rather than some mystical quality of Britishness; but there was something in it. </span><br />
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<span class="st">No longer. What the survival of British exceptionalism has proven, ironically, is that a significant part of us are as capable of losing our minds as anyone else. Whether it comes as farce or tragedy, as clown car or Panzer, Brexit is exposing the very worst side of our country. And there is no very obvious end in sight.</span>Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-23277482285181541462018-07-09T18:28:00.001+01:002018-07-22T09:17:45.724+01:00Another Suitcase in Another HallTheresa May has now gained a Brexit policy, at the expense of losing David Davis and Boris Johnson. On balance, this seems like a fair exchange.<br />
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Here are some thoughts on what happens now.<br />
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<b>The leadership question</b><br />
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Lyndon Johnson once said that the first rule of politics is to learn to count. There are currently 316 Conservative MPs, 48 of whom are needed to trigger a motion of no confidence in the leader. Jacob Rees-Mogg and his hard core of fellow headbangers amount to around 50 MPs. The biggest Europe-related rebellion in recent years was in 2011, when 114 MPs supported something that Cameron told them not to. In 2016, a total of 140 Conservative MPs backed Leave.<br />
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What this means, in short, is that the headbangers have sufficient numbers to force a vote of confidence but <i>not enough to win it</i>. If they do force a vote, it is difficult to see how Theresa May will not win comfortably. This is especially the case given that the vote will be seen as a proxy for Boris Johnson's leadership ambitions - and Johnson's reputation is at a low ebb at present among his colleagues due to a combination of his clumsy resignation, his antics over Heathrow, "fuck business", and general weariness with the man. In all, a vote of confidence in May is likely to be a repeat of Major v Redwood in 1995, an exercise which left Major strengthened and his Eurosceptic opponents marginalised. <br />
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This brings us on to a point which has not generally been noticed. As far as the Conservative Party is concerned, the events since last Friday have seen a <i>return to normal</i>. There has been a return to the usual dynamic that has prevailed in the party since Edward Heath fell in 1975: a somewhat Eurosceptic leadership which is harrassed by a diehard right-wing fringe. This is the default position of modern Toryism. It happened when Cameron was in power. It happened in the Major years. It even happened to Thatcher, who was tepidly pro-EEC for most of her career and had to face down little-Englander rebels from time to time. The difference today is that the referendum result has pushed the "moderate" position from "Remain with opt-outs" to "soft Leave", and the headbanger position from "soft Leave" to "hard Leave" (the likes of Bill Cash and Bernard Jenkin used to see nothing wrong with EFTA membership).<br />
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There is a further lesson from history for Mrs May. She did right to steer the Cabinet towards a relatively soft Brexit, not only because it's the right thing for the country but also because nothing good ever came from Tory leaders granting concessions to the headbanger faction. These people are nihilists and fanatics, and they cannot be appeased. Major and Cameron would no doubt be happy to explain this to the PM if she falters.<br />
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<b>Hamlet without the prince</b><br />
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Brexit is an essentially narcissistic project, and one of the must stunning proofs of this is the way that so many Conservative politicians are treating the negotiations as if the only participants that count are in Westminster. What about our <i>real</i> negotiating partners?<br />
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All the rumours that I've heard are that the EU saw the Chequers proposal coming a mile off and decided privately months ago that it wasn't good enough. There is still some goodwill for May in Brussels, and a desire not to break her Government. But the policy as currently formulated crosses the EU's red lines. It is <i>possible </i>that the EU27 will be prepared to fudge certain things in the end - for example, agreeing to an end to free movement if the substance of it is preserved under a different name - but we're not even close to that space yet.<br />
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<b>Norway v no deal</b><br />
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As the hard-right cranks on the Tory benches have realised, the Chequers policy isn't an end in itself. No-one expects that it will be accepted wholesale by Barnier, and further concessions will have to follow - ideally accompanied by parallel face-saving gestures from Brussels. The fate of the services sector is the obvious gap in the proposal as it stands, and the 80% of the British economy that is made up of service industries will have to be catered for somehow, probably though an arrangement involving budget payments (badged as something else) and free movement 2.0 (dressed up as "attracting talent"). In short, what the policy does is to set up a dynamic whereby, after a few months of difficult negotiations, we might end up in something broadly similar to an EFTA/Norway arrangement.<br />
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The alternative is that the EU is so annoyed with the continuing special pleading from the Brits - 16 months into the Article 50 period, when the EU has plenty of other important things to worry about - that they smack down the Chequers policy without seriously considering it. This is still entirely possible, and it could force a change on May - either because it would extend the desire for a new leader beyond the Rees-Mogg fringe into the mainstream of her party, or because she genuinely believes in her plan and will react badly if it's rejected out of hand. The second possibility is perhaps less likely, as it has never been clear that May believes very strongly in anything. At any rate, if Barnier is merciless about the Chequers proposals, "no deal" moves to the top of the agenda.<br />
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If the clock ticks on towards the end of this year and we are still facing "no deal", there are basically three choices (leaving aside another general election, which is likely to be too great a risk for the Tories to take). It's anyone's guess which of them will prevail.<br />
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The conventional wisdom is that the Government would fall. Someone would trigger a vote of no confidence, either in the Conservative Party or in the Commons, and May would resign to avoid losing it. The Tories would replace her with an empty suit who could reassure the party mainstream (Hunt? Williamson?) and who would be just about tolerable to enough Labour MPs to override the 50 Commons votes of the headbangers. The lucky fellow would step over May's red lines ("purely as an interim measure, of course") and hastily agree to some fudge like EFTA-under-another-name before the deadline runs out.<br />
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The second option is that May decides that she isn't ready to stop being prime minister just yet and calls a second referendum. The last two Europe referendums have been held in order to resolve internal party conflicts, and it's possible that another one will end up being held for the same reason. Again, May would need enough Labour MPs' votes to override the headbangers in order to pass the necessary legislation. But May is probably in no hurry to ask the voters what they think again after last year. She could not be confident of getting the result that she wanted. <br />
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The third possibility is that we really do leave without a deal - or with an absolutely minimal deal, which the EU agrees to in order to keep the planes flying and in order not to get blamed for cancer treatments suddenly stopping.<br />
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<b>What definitely <i>won't</i> happen</b><br />
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There is one thing, and one thing only, that we can be confident <i>won't</i> happen; and that is that the EU will suddenly fold and say that actually we can have our cake and eat it after all. This was always unlikely, even if we'd started off with a strong government that played its cards skilfully. At this stage of the game, it is inconceivable.<br />
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From the EU27's perspective, the worst outcome isn't no deal, it's the unravelling of the single market, a development which would have prohibitive economic and political costs for them. They will make some compromises to keep post-Brexit Britain as an ally, but they won't compromise on that. There is also the huge issue of the Irish border. One of May's biggest mistakes so far was to rule out Northern Ireland staying in the single market and customs union. This would be a neat solution to a unique problem which affects a Remain-voting country. But May immediately dismissed it - and not reluctantly, letting us think that she was forced to do so by the DUP, but with strident "no prime minister..." rhetoric. A completely unnecessary error, to add to all the others.<br />
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<b>What is the best outcome?</b><br />
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If we crashed out of the EU without a deal, Brexit would fail and would be plainly seen to fail. Economic growth would rapidly shift into reverse, inward investment would plunge (taking the pound with it), unemployment would shoot up, and we would be reminded of what Donald Trump really thinks about trade deals. The thesis that everything would still be fine because we would recoup our losses through unilaterally embracing fundamentalist freemarket policies is a fantasy even by Brexiter standards. Not only would the pain of an ultra-hard Brexit enrage the Leave faction who thought that they had voted to return to the 1950s, it would be perhaps the only thing that would make affluent middle-class voters consider putting Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street. The Brexit cause would be discredited for a generation, and at a minimum we would come crawling back for a Norway-style deal. Not a bad outcome in the long run from a Remainer perspective - as long as the backlash didn't result in a genuine neo-fascist movement coming along.<br />
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The only other plausible outcome is Norway-under-a-different-name. It has been said that the one thing that both dedicated Brexiteers and Remainers fear is this kind of very soft Brexit. Both sides realise that once we are in that relatively comfortable position, there will be no great incentive for us ever to leave it. Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-43743852570577668612018-01-17T15:55:00.002+00:002019-09-09T20:49:22.288+01:00All Out War, Tim ShipmanThis is the definitive account of the Brexit referendum campaign and the events surrounding it. It is a remarkable piece of journalism - Shipman, who is the political editor of the <i>Sunday Times</i>, seems to have spoken to everyone short of the Queen. The book is highly detailed, and will no doubt be pored over for years to come by historians and political consultants.<br />
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The main points that emerge from Shipman's colossal research effort are as follows:<br />
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<li>The Leave side suffered from deep and acrimonious divisions. There was the broadly respectable Vote Leave organisation, which was eventually designated by the Electoral Commission as the official campaign. Vote Leave was run by Dominic Cummings, a brilliant but intolerant individual who was described by David Cameron as a "career psychopath". He survived an attempt to fire him by his own board. Then there was Leave.eu, the Ukip-linked campaign run by the dislikeable Arron Banks, which was less squeamish about exploiting the immigration issue: these were the guys who produced the infamous "Breaking Point" poster. </li>
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<ul>
<li>All was not well on the Remain side either. David Cameron didn't push his renegotiation to the wire, and the resulting deal was so feeble that Stronger In deliberately avoided mentioning it during the campaign. Remain campaigners seem to have pulled their punches at various times in order not to worsen the poisonous atmosphere inside the Tory Party with "blue on blue" attacks. They also stuck doggedly to their script on the economy and failed to engage the Leave side sufficiently on immigration. Stronger In's official, cautiously favourable, line on immigration was ignored by Remain politicians until the very end of the campaign, when Ruth Davidson and Sadiq Khan deployed it to widespread acclaim in the Wembley debate. Worse, the claims of economic calamity which made up the Remain message were designed to appeal to middle-class Conservative voters, not to the poorer, northern-based Labour supporters who swung the result for Leave. One campaigner observed:</li>
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When we started just saying "The economy will be fucked," it showed what a profound misunderstanding they had of Labour motives. Across the north-east and the north-west people already felt like the economy was pretty fucked and not working for them. It was just a Tory voter strategy. </blockquote>
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<li><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Shipman attacks the consensus view that Boris Johnson joined the Leave campaign out of opportunism in order to increase his chances of becoming prime minister. If Shipman's sources are to be believed, the truth is much worse - Johnson really believes in the Brexit cause. He emerges from the book as a more erratic and <span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">less ruthless </span>individual than one might imagine.</span></li>
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<li>One man who does come out of the book as a villain is Jeremy Corbyn: it seems that Corbyn and the people around him deliberately and culpably withheld their support from the Remain campaign. Shipman recalls that Corbyn had spent years denouncing the EU as a capitalist club, but he also reveals that he had a tactical reason for his misbehaviour. If Remain won - so he calculated - he would be able to share the credit as a nominal Remainer; but if Leave won, people would remember his lukewarmness and conclude that he had had his finger on the pulse all along. </li>
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<li>Most ominously of all, Theresa May emerges as a weak and vacillating figure. During Cameron's renegotiation, she alternated between pushing hard for new immigration controls and pulling back for fear of annoying the Germans. She seems to have fallen into line behind Remain because it was an easy default option, and her only major speech of the campaign was an unmemorable and ambivalent effort. She accrued support in the leadership campaign, in part at least, on the basis that she wasn't Boris Johnson. Shipman records how she neatly appropriated Ken Clarke's description of her as a "bloody difficult woman" - "the next person to find that out will be Jean-Claude Juncker". But he hasn't found that out, has he? That's the point.</li>
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Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-23025410169377086702017-12-20T11:37:00.001+00:002017-12-20T11:38:59.711+00:00Whither Brexit? - A responseFollowing my last blog post about Brexit, I received a lengthy response from a former civil servant which I'd like to reproduce in full (with edits to remove identifying personal details).<br />
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I don’t agree that Euroscepticism has largely been a minority view. One of the reasons why working-class leave voters are frequently described as “forgotten” or “ignored” is because they and most people they know have been Eurosceptic for decades, but it is only relatively recently that their views have received any mainstream attention at all.<br />
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When John Major joked that Redwood and IDS had “all the characteristics of populists except for popularity”, he was right, but not for the reason he thought he was. Euroscepticism wasn’t and typically hasn’t been popular among well-off Tory voters. When you’re alright Jack, why rock the boat? The system is working fine for you. David Cameron wanted to stop his party “banging on about Europe” because it was off-putting to most “moderate” Tories and the floating voters he was hoping to attract. He didn’t consider the views of “old Labour” voters, because those people would sooner boil their own heads than vote Tory. But Euroscepticism runs deep with those voters. The views espoused by the “headbangers” like Redwood and IDS weren’t unpopular at all; it’s just that they were only popular with the kind of people who hated Tories. <br />
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I would argue that hard Euroscepticism among working-class voters goes at least back to the 1980s, and it has suddenly bubbled to the surface in the last few years.<br />
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I’m going to use the Welsh valleys as an example because it is where my family is originally from. My grandad was born in a village just outside Merthyr Tydfil and lost his father in a pit accident when he was three. Having been widowed in her twenties, my great-grandmother pushed her sons to get a decent education so they could have professional careers instead of becoming miners like their dad. Needless to say, they left Wales and never returned. Everyone else they grew up with became miners, as did their sons, and they were all completely fucked when the mines closed. My best friend’s family live a few miles away and it is a dismal place. She once told me that she was registered to vote there and she always voted Tory even though she hates the Tories. When I asked why, she said the Tories don’t try to win people’s votes in South Wales because they know that people there will never vote Tory, and Labour don’t try to win people’s votes in South Wales either, for exactly the same reason. So South Wales gets completely forgotten about and suffers from decades of industrial decline, whilst lots of lovely money is found to bribe voters in marginal constituencies.<br />
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Wales is the example I’m most familiar with, but I’m sure the same is true of other former mining / post-industrial communities in the north and the midlands. Hatred of the Tories and Thatcher in particular is ingrained. And if you look back to the early 1980s, Labour campaigned (unsuccessfully) with a manifesto pledge to leave the EEC, whereas the single market was Thatcher’s baby. For a lot of working-class voters who remember the 1980s, Euroscepticism is an old-school working-class Labour ideal, and the single market is the brainchild of the prime minister they associate with the destruction of their communities and way of life.<br />
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When John Major was trying to put out the Eurosceptic fires of the 1990s, it was a very Tory problem. It was purely about the divisions within his own party at a time when they were deeply unpopular thanks to Thatcher’s legacy. Then in 1997, boom! Along comes fresh-faced Tony Blair, who wholeheartedly embraces the EU. The problem was that New Labour and Old Labour were not at all the same thing, and Tony Blair won because he was able to rely on all the Old Labour voters who would vote for a monkey as long as it was wearing a red rosette, whilst simultaneously managing to woo the people in the centre, the “aspirational middle classes” and bored Lib Dem voters. It’s the old South Wales problem again – he didn’t feel like he needed to do anything to win over the “Old Labour” voters because they would never vote Tory in a million years, so he was free to concentrate on winning the centre, which is what he really wanted. Blair’s Labour bore absolutely no resemblance to the old, incompetent, depressing Labour of the 1970s. Blair then saw us through the 2004 expansion, ratification of the Lisbon Treaty without a referendum, and had his reputation seriously tarnished by Iraq. The financial crisis was the last straw. So as with Thatcher, so with Blair. As always happens eventually in a two party system, after so many years at the top the ruling party becomes deeply unpopular and people want change again. But the Tories were still really unpopular too, which is why Cameron couldn’t win a majority even when the alternative was Brown. The Lib Dem coalition was widely seen as a fiasco, even if many people now look back on their contribution far more kindly in retrospect. At the time I remember seeing the Lib Dems as a beacon of hope, only to be crushingly disappointed a few months later when they seemed to just be propping up the Tories.<br />
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For a decade now we have been in a situation where most people feel their standard of living has worsened and whether you are working-class, middle-class, poor, well-off, staunch Brexiteer or passionate remainer, most people view general elections as a largely pointless exercise where you are being asked to choose which of the two potential parties of government you hate the least, and you know your vote probably won’t count anyway. Not to mention that at some point the right-wing media decided that being in the EU wasn’t in their interests, so they started giving loads of airtime to people like Farage and Boris, and drip-feeding people negative stories about immigration and bendy bananas.<br />
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All of this was a perfect storm, and created the ideal conditions for hard-line Europhobia (because it is far more than scepticism now) to come along out of nowhere and dominate public discourse. I have no idea why anyone was surprised that disaffected voters turned out in their millions to vote for UKIP in the 2014 European Parliament elections, or why people didn’t see Brexit coming from a mile off. Clearly no one in charge was listening. I have been regularly reading the comments on many pro-Brexit and pro-remain Facebook pages since 2013. I also often read the comments below the line on news articles (across the whole political spectrum), and I even looked briefly at Mumsnet, of all places. The writing has been on the wall for a really long time. (Incidentally, at risk of looking like an insane conspiracy theorist, I am fairly certain that people were being paid to post pro-leave propaganda on Mumsnet [SNIP personal details].) <br />
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I worked for the government [SNIP], and I witnessed what I would describe as a gradual takeover by the “headbangers”. [SNIP] Even as far back as 2014 when I first started advising [a Conservative junior minister], [SNIP] his response would invariably be “well when we leave the EU we won’t have to worry about this sort of thing any more”. This was before Cameron had even got his majority and committed to holding a referendum. [SNIP] He is exactly the kind of politician who was considered to be on the fringe five years ago and is very much mainstream now. [SNIP]<br />
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We have some real nutbags in the government at the moment.<br />
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As for where we are now, I’m afraid I have my doubts about whether we are really heading in the direction of a soft Brexit. If we end up with any kind of solution which doesn’t look like we have properly left the EU, a lot of people are going to go absolutely apeshit. Most of the prominent faces in government have essentially committed to hard Brexit, either because they are a headbanger who genuinely thinks that’s a good idea, or because they haven’t really thought through the consequences of hard Brexit but want to be seen to be doing what’s popular. It is going to be very difficult for all those people to backtrack now. If we end up going for something which looks like soft Brexit, millions of people are going to feel completely betrayed and as though they have no stake in our democracy anymore. (They felt that way already, but now they will feel that it has been confirmed beyond all doubt.) They also – overwhelmingly – do not care about the economic fallout. They do not care about Northern Ireland. They are not interested in listening to evidence about the benefits we get from being in the EU, or in having a discussion about the Working Time Directive. They definitely don’t care about wanker bankers in London losing their jobs. They are just angry and they want us OUT. And contrary to popular belief, they’re not all Daily Mail reading pensioners who will moan but ultimately find other things to complain about. Some of them have the potential to cause real havoc.<br />
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I fear we are in a lose-lose situation. Hard Brexit will be shit from an economic point of view and it will completely fuck up Northern Ireland, but soft Brexit will create the ideal conditions for widespread rioting, civil unrest and the rise of groups like Britain First. <br />
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Your post is essentially based on the assumption that parliament has taken back control and that the grown-ups are now in charge. But parliament is not the government. If the Tory government stays the course until 2022 (which you seem to think it will), I am not sure which grown-ups you expect to take over, because I haven’t seen any for quite some time. And if the government falls… well, Jeremy Corbyn is traditional old Labour and mad as a box of frogs, so I wouldn’t count on him to save the day either.<br />
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Even if the predictions you have made turn out to be correct in the short-term, in the long-term the issue is never going to go away until the problems that have led to it have been addressed. And Brexit (any kind of Brexit) makes it far less likely that any government will have the time, the inclination or the funds to address those problems.<br />
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<i>I can respond to this briefly, as follows.</i><br />
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I would accept that a distinct bloc of nationalist voters exists in declining former industrial areas (sometimes called by the rather patronising term "left behind"). But the 52% was a coalition between these voters and other, quite different groups (and the same is true of the Remain side). I'd also want to make the point that British society hasn't been consistently Eurosceptic - support for the EU (and the EEC before it) has shown large swings from one side to the other in polls over the years. All in all, I don't think there was anything inevitable about the 2016 vote, and I don't think we can say that a hard Brexit is the settled "will of the people", to use a currently fashionable phrase. At this point in time, we have a deeply divided society, and that's what lies behind the current parliamentary arithmetic. My main point in my last post was that there is now a parliamentary path to soft Brexit (and no obvious path to hard Brexit or Remain); but I wouldn't claim that this has anything to do with grown ups taking over. There are few enough of those in British politics these days. A soft Brexit may enrage the "left behind" voting bloc to the point of encouraging far-right extremism, but at this point there is <i>no </i>outcome that <i>won't</i> cause serious anger or harm to some part or parts of British society. That's how fucked we are. I merely point the problem out without offering a solution.Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-36764617521373645102017-12-17T15:17:00.003+00:002018-07-22T12:43:56.270+01:00The case of Bishop BellWhen Bishop George Bell of Chichester (served 1929-1958) was reported to have been a paedophile, it seemed all too familiar - a senior churchman exposed as an abuser. We'd heard it all before. Then, when a group of prominent lawyers and others <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjzltHAppHYAhVILFAKHc8DBIsQFggnMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.georgebellgroup.org%2F&usg=AOvVaw2gJtRlZurxx0b6cQobkYSL">formed to protest</a> his cause, it felt like the establishment closing ranks yet again to protect one of their own. But the story did not end there.<br />
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To all appearances, Bell was a very good man. He was involved with the German resistance to the Nazis in the 1930s, and he used his influence to help refugees come to Britain. During World War II, he spoke out against carpet bombing of German cities - a stance which annoyed Churchill so much that it is believed to have cost him appointment as Archbishop of Canterbury. Of course, the fact that Bell did some morally impressive things does not in itself prove that he was innocent. Bill Cosby spent years campaigning for worthy causes in the African American community, causes which he seems to have genuinely believed in. More cynically, Jimmy Savile thought that he could buy respectability through his charity work.<br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The allegations of abuse are revolting. The complainant, who has been given the pseudonym Carol, says that she was abused by Bell in his bishop's palace for a period of several years when she was a small child. There is no conceivable point in repeating the details, but it is worth noting that, if they are true, Bell did not stop at molesting a child; he blasphemously used the trappings of his religion as a cover and accompaniment for doing so.</span><br />
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The church reached a legal settlement with Carol, and Lord Carlile QC has just published an <a href="http://www.chichester.anglican.org/news/2017/12/15/publication-bishop-george-bell-independent-review/">independent review</a> of the case in which he criticises the way that the church handled it (for once, the church was too eager to come to terms with the complainant rather than the reverse). But Carlile made no attempt to pronounce on the truth or otherwise of the allegations. What, then, are we to think of them?<br />
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The truth is that no-one knows for certain what really happened. A psychiatrist concluded that Carol was not suffering from any mental disorder, although he left open the possibility of false memory. It seems to be accepted that she visited the bishop's palace as a child; but the limited evidence that survives seems to tell against the idea that she did so often or spent time personally with the bishop. Bell's defenders have pointed to a couple of anomalies in Carol's narrative of events; but it is difficult to know whether they are a symptom of wider problems. No other alleged victims of Bell have been identified, which is unusual in paedophile cases, but not unheard of.<br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Our society has learnt, slowly and painfully, to listen sympathetically to the accounts of people who come forward as survivors of sexual abuse. This approach seems to be eminently justified by the evidence. A Ministry of Justice <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/217471/understanding-progression-serious-cases.pdf" style="background-color: transparent; color: #0066cc; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left; text-decoration: underline; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">study from 2012</a> found that only 3% or 12% of rape allegations are false, depending on the criteria used. We have also learnt not to assume that respectable figures are incapable of doing terrible things. Carol was entitled to be given a fair and compassionate hearing. This raises a difficult question of principle. Why not give her the benefit of the doubt, just to be on the safe side? Bell is long dead, and the only interest of his that is at stake is his reputation. Why, we might ask, does his reputation <i>matter</i>? From a religious perspective, he is in another state of existence now. The piece of spiritual energy that used to be George Bell is hardly likely to be upset at what is being printed in the Times and the Guardian. From a secular perspective, he simply isn't around any more. He didn't leave any direct descendants. There are no children or grandchildren (although he does have an elderly niece, who was understandably troubled by the coverage).</span><br />
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Bell's defenders, like Peter Hitchens, would reply that a person is entitled to be considered innocent until proven guilty. But the presumption of innocence is a legal doctrine which belongs in the world of the criminal justice system. It is extremely important within that specific context, as it prevents innocent people (innocent<i> living</i> people) from being thrown in jail. But it does not necessarily have any application in other areas of life. It is not difficult to think of situations in which we manifestly<i> </i>don't give other people the benefit of the doubt, and are not obliged to do so. When Hitchens invests his pension with a person who has been accused of fraud but hasn't actually been convicted, <i>then</i> he can make this argument.<br />
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And yet, and yet... it still seems wrong to trash someone's reputation if they are no longer around to defend themselves. There is a basic unfairness about it. We are left with the idea that there is some inherent value in protecting a dead person's reputation, for the sake of truth alone. Yet this idea has never been recognised in the law. It is well known that you can't libel the dead. And what of history writing? How long should a historian agonise before suggesting that a historical figure is guilty of a great crime? Should David Starkey have experienced a crisis of conscience when he endorsed the theory that Richard III killed the princes in the tower?<br />
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What seems clear is that the Church of England can't go on venerating Bell. His name has come to be associated with numerous institutions, and he has been given the Anglican equivalent of sainthood in being allocated his own commemoration day in the church's calendar. The Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, has issued a <a href="https://www.churchofengland.org/more/media-centre/news/publication-bishop-george-bell-independent-review">statement</a> in which he clumsily tries to triangulate between Bell's revered reputation and the "great wickedness" of which he is "accused". Welby whiffles about the "cloud... left over his name" and muses platitudinously that no-one is "entirely good or bad". Well, no, but most of us aren't kiddy fiddlers; or rescuers of Jewish refugees from Hitler, for that matter. The statement is worthy of a gas company's PR officer rather than a national spiritual leader. Bell may well be entirely innocent, but the truth is that the "cloud" is too real to allow him to continue being held up as a person to be celebrated and emulated. He will have to be allowed to lapse into the obscurity of history. Wherever he is now, that much is unlikely to bother him.Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-69188780735342175792017-12-17T14:49:00.002+00:002017-12-17T21:02:33.593+00:00Whither Brexit?Last week was the week that the hard Brexiters' luck finally ran out.<br />
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The hardliners have had a good run - implausibly good, in fact. For years, radical Euroscepticism was a minority position, both in the Conservative Party and in the country as a whole. When the likes of Iain Duncan Smith and John Redwood first emerged as anti-EU crusaders in the 1990s, they were treated as a joke. Media commentators called them "headbangers"; John Major called them "bastards"; and it was accurately observed that they had "all the characteristics of populists except for popularity". David Cameron recognised how badly this sort of thing had gone down with the voters, and he became Conservative leader on an express promise to stop his party from "banging on about Europe". The paradigm anti-EU party, UKIP, was not competitive in general elections until 2015; and even then it won an unimpressive 12.6% vote share and one single MP. Everyone assumed that Remain would win the referendum; and the narrow Leave victory, while surprising, did not signal a national conversion to IDS's view of the world. It is plainly not arguable that all of the 52% were headbangers. When the debate turned to what kind of Brexit we would have, the early assumption was some sort of Norway-minus. When the term "hard Brexit" was originally coined, the general assumption was that it was a bad thing. For a brief moment, those who actively promoted it stood out as eccentrics.<br />
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So, nothing about the shape of the political landscape in the weeks after the referendum made it especially likely that Government policy would end up aiming at a hard Brexit. And yet it did - until now, at least. When Theresa May came into office in July 2016, she appointed the "three Brexiteers" to major Cabinet positions. She created a whole new ministry - the Department for International Trade - whose existence implicitly presupposed that the UK would be leaving the customs union. May formally turned hard Brexit into express Government policy in her party conference speech in October 2016 and her Lancaster House speech in January 2017.<br />
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Whether May decided to go down this path out of genuine conviction or because she calculated that her survival in office was dependent on appeasing the headbanging wing of her party is a question that we can leave to the biographers. Her gratuitous decision to turn the obscure question of the role of the European Court of Justice into a red-line issue does suggest that she felt burnt by her experience with European courts as Home Secretary. In any event, however, the point is that she <i>did</i> go down this road, even though she didn't have to.<br />
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And now the honeymoon is over. May lost the vote on giving Parliament a binding vote on the withdrawal agreement. What has been less well publicised is that her government has staved off defeat on a series of other votes on the Brexit Bill only by making significant concessions to pro-European backbenchers. And the Lords stages of the Bill are still to come. The House of Lords is a Remainer stronghold, to the degree that Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nigel Farage have suggested creating hundreds of new peers to swamp the current members. While their lordships generally back down in battles with the elected house (they have not outright rejected a bill from the Commons since the Hunting Act 2004), there is reason to believe that they may be more assertive in circumstances where the Commons is fatally divided and led by a minority government.<br />
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What the Commons vote last week revealed - or rather, confirmed, because we knew this already - is that there is no majority in the House for the Government's hard Brexit policy. Only 11 MPs rebelled on Wednesday night, but no-one thinks that 11 is the sum total of the constituency for a soft Brexit. A rough count indicates that over 40% of current Conservative MPs supported Remain in the referendum, and that's not counting members of the new 2017 intake. MPs are unlikely to stop Brexit altogether, but they might well reject a deal that is too "hard". The fury of Brexiteers - the death threats against Anna Soubry, the talk of deselection, the demagoguery of the <i>Daily Mail</i> - all this conceals a profound fear. The headbangers know that the numbers are against them. They have had their moment in the sun, and now they can see the clouds gathering. They howl with rage because there is damn all else that they can do.</div>
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As everybody noticed, there was a rich irony in hard Brexiteers wanting to cut Parliament out of the withdrawal process, given that restoring parliamentary sovereignty has been the ostensible goal of the whole Brexit project. As someone said on Twitter, "O God, make Parliament sovereign, but not yet". It was the rebels who were seeking to uphold the authority of Parliament, rather than giving the executive a blank cheque. They also had a practical argument on their side. As one Labour MP pointed out, "I don't think I can get this past my members" is a classic trade union negotiating tactic, and one that May should be glad to have in her pocket during the Brexit talks. In all, the Grieve amendment should not have been a matter of controversy; there was nothing to be said for the Government's position. The headbangers squawked about the referendum result - but the 52% were never asked if they wanted to stop Parliament from holding the executive to account, and it is not difficult to guess what they would have said if they had been. In any case, there is no convention that referendum results mean that MPs cannot fight over the consequent legislation in Parliament. Conservative MPs voted against the Scotland Act 1998 after a much larger (74%) Yes vote in the Scottish devolution referendum. At the end of the day, high-minded constitutional principles evidently count for less among the headbangers than protecting a policy outcome that they really, <i>really</i> want to happen.</div>
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One possible way out of the present predicament would be for a hard-Brexit Tory to knife May, hope for a bounce in the polls, and then put down a motion for an early election in the hope of altering the parliamentary arithmetic. But an early election is not an option while Jeremy Corbyn is within striking distance of Number 10. Indeed, the <i>best</i> case scenario for the Tories from another election would be a small, 2015-size majority - which is precisely the situation that May was trying to escape from when she dissolved Parliament earlier this year. It has well been said that the current Parliament would either collapse within months or stay the full course to 2022. The latter now seems likely. The parliamentary arithmetic is not an accident; it is a reflection of a deeply divided society. Both sides are just going to have to accept this underlying reality and work with it.</div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The Tory Government is not going to fall either. If May loses a confidence vote, convention dictates that the Queen will send for Jeremy Corbyn. The DUP will probably swallow a soft Brexit, but they are unlikely to throw the premiership to a man who wants to take Northern Ireland out of the UK. Plus, a Corbyn minority government probably <i>would</i> opt for an early election (which the Tories could not credibly be seen to block), so bringing the Tories down would probably lead to a new Parliament in which the DUP would lose the balance of power. There is a pleasant fantasy that Vince Cable could lead a government of national unity, but I doubt that any unrepentant Remainer is going to be allowed near Downing Street in the foreseeable future.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">So, the Conservative Government is trapped in office, with a Commons dominated by Remainers and soft-Brexiters, but a party heavily influenced by its headbanging wing. A strong PM could get a soft Brexit through Parliament by relying mainly on Opposition votes. Blair did this sort of thing sometimes - but Theresa May is no Tony Blair.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;"></span><span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;"></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><br />
The Cabinet are set to discuss the end destination of Brexit soon. Johnson and Gove are already talking about scrapping the working time laws. We didn't really need further proof that the Tory Brexiters' passion for a Victorian vision of Britain extends to taking the limits off employees' working conditions, but here it is anyway. Apart from being a troublingly regressive step, this is politically stupid. One of the few things that May got right when drawing up her election manifesto this year was that the voters of 2017 Britain are in an insecure and defensive mood. The 52% weren't angry because they thought they had too many rights at work. Jeremy Corbyn must be rubbing his hands.<br />
<div>
<br />
God knows how May will negotiate all this with her Cabinet, and God knows how she will negotiate our withdrawal with the EU27. Keeping a soft border in Ireland without imposing a new internal UK border points to something approaching membership of the single market and customs union, although it will clearly have to be called something else. The same broad outcome is indicated by the fact that the City will be crashed by a Canada-style deal; and the EU27 seem unlikely at this point to offer us any cake-and-eat-it arrangement which falls between Canada and Norway-minus. It has been reported that some Leavers are now resigned to an outcome of this sort. Apparently, they are pointing to the precedent of Ireland. The southern part of Ireland initially achieved only partial independence, in the form of the Irish Free State (1922-1937), and did not become a republic free from ties to the British crown until 1948. This is a truly bizarre analogy for right-wing British nationalists to use, but it shows at least some resignation to the inevitable. They would also do well to bear in mind another consideration, which amounts to an inconvenient truth for Remainers - the more likely a soft Brexit becomes, the less likely we are to exit from Brexit altogether.</div>
<b></b>Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-85442772421586269992017-11-15T18:27:00.001+00:002018-07-22T12:38:32.013+01:00The Two TribesSome interesting statistics from YouGov on the social and political views of Remain and Leave voters (see the links in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/14/sex-slang-steak-views-leave-remain-worlds-apart">this news story</a>).<br />
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I have summarised the most striking findings below. In recognition of the fact that polls are capable of being wrong, I have included only very large, yawning gaps of over 20%, well beyond any plausible margin of error.<br />
<br />
The overall picture is one of a cultural divide between the conservative and liberal elements of British society, particularly on issues pertaining to nationalism and nativist sentiment. The Remain/Leave division is less chasmic when it is analysed in more conventional political terms - that is, on the basis of left/right attitudes towards things like taxes and government involvement in the economy. There was definite evidence that Leavers are more conservative on such matters, but that is only part of the picture. For example, divisions in opinion on the proper role of the state in running utility companies, banks and the NHS were much smaller than the divisions on any of the issues listed below. It would seem that the Hannanite libertarian wing of Leave isn't really what it's all about.<br />
<b></b><span style="color: orange;"></span><br />
<b>Nationalism and nativism</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Agree with Trump's Muslim ban - Leave + 42%</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Ban the burqua - Leave + 38%</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Consider golliwogs acceptable - Leave + 35%</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Agree with Trump's border wall - Leave + 27%</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">UK should leave Eurovision Song Contest [sic] - Leave + 24%</span></b><br />
<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><b></b><span style="color: blue;"></span><br />
<b>Socially progressive causes</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><span style="color: orange;">Gay sex is natural - Remain + 32%</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: orange;">UK should stay in Paris climate agreement - Remain + 30%</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: orange;">Approve of gay men becoming parents - Remain + 25%</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: orange;">Concern about meat eating and the environment - Remain + 24%</span></b><br />
<br />
<b>Law and order</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><span style="color: orange;">Main purpose of prison is rehabilitation - Remain + 23%</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;">Security over freedom in combating terrorism - Leave + 20%</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></b>
<br />
These figures are consistent with the results of Lord Ashcroft's illuminating survey from last year.....<br />
<br />
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Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-91705423520496247992017-10-22T14:05:00.000+01:002017-10-22T14:05:21.045+01:00Sappho - Three Poems<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Fragment 1 – A Prayer to Aphrodite</b></div>
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<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Gorgeously enthroned, eternal Aphrodite,</div>
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child of Zeus and weaver of wiles, I beseech you,</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
let not pain or anguish take possession of</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
my heart, my lady,</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
but come here to me, if ever you have heard</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
my voice from up there, and relented, and</div>
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listened, and left your father's golden</div>
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dwelling, and come down,</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
yoking your chariot – beautiful swift</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
sparrows drew you to the dark-soiled earth,</div>
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fluttering their wings, down from heaven</div>
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through the mid-air,</div>
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<br /></div>
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and then you arrived – and, blessed goddess,</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
with a smile on your immortal countenance,</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
you asked what ailed me this time, and why</div>
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I was calling you,</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
and what it was that I so desired</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
in my maddened heart. “Who am I to persuade this time</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
to lead you back into love again? Who is</div>
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wronging you, Sappho?</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
“In truth, if she is fleeing, soon she will pursue;</div>
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if she will not take gifts, yet she will give them;</div>
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if she does not love, soon she will love,</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
willing or not.”</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Come to me now, free me from my bitter</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
cares; and accomplish for me whatever</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
my heart desires to accomplish; and</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
be you my ally.</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<b>Fragment 2 – A Prayer to Aphrodite</b><br />
<br />
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Come hither, I pray, from Crete to this holy</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
shrine, where you have your lovely grove of</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
apple trees, and altars filled with the smoke</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
of frankincense;</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
here cool waters splash through branches of</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
apple, and all around the place is shaded</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
with roses, and slumber glides down from</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
shimmering leaves;</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
here a meadow, pasture for horses, blooms</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
with flowers of springtime, and gusts of wind</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
breathe forth sweetly....</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Come here, goddess of Cyprus, and take up</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
the golden chalices, and gracefully</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
pour them with nectar like wine, mixed in</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
with celebration.</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b>Fragment 5 – A Prayer to Aphrodite and the Nereids</b></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Cypris, Sea-maidens, grant, I pray, that</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
my brother may arrive here safely;</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
and bring to pass whatever he desires</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
in his heart;</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
may he atone, O goddesses, for the past,</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
and may he be a delight to his friends</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
and a woe to his enemies; and may we suffer</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
not one bad thing.</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
May he be pleased to give his sister</div>
<div class="western" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
a share of honour....</div>
Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-78830028682462649522017-10-22T14:04:00.000+01:002017-10-22T14:14:35.888+01:00Louis XVI in the White House?What is the driving force behind the alt-right? The obvious answer is that the alt-right is the modern iteration of traditional American white supremacism. The fact that these guys associate themselves with the symbols of the Confederacy and march with the KKK is something of a giveaway.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
But there is one major influence on the alt-right that has not yet been fully explored (although it has occasionally been noted). This is the philosophical school that is sometimes known as the "Counter-Enlightenment", or the "Reactionary" tradition - using that word in its original and specific meaning. This was the arch-conservative model of politics that originated in Western Europe among the losing side of the French Revolution of 1789. I have written <a href="http://counterenlightenment.blogspot.co.uk/">an entire blog</a> about it.<br />
<br />
The Counter-Enlightenment current largely petered out in the late 19th century, as liberalism and constitutional governance became more or less established across Europe. Yet the tradition continued to have brief renaissances - for example, when some of its descendants (Charles Maurras in France, Julius Evola in Italy) collaborated with fascism in the 1930s and 40s; and during the rise of Alain de Benoist and his French <i>Nouvelle Droite</i> in the 1970s.<br />
<br />
The theorists of the Counter-Enlightenment tradition are reported to be admired in alt-right networks reaching right up to the Trump White House. Steve Bannon <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/bannon-canon-books-trump-adviser-572835">apparently likes</a> Maurras and Evola. Even the <a href="http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/03/29/an-establishment-conservatives-guide-to-the-alt-right/">whitewashed guide to the alt-right</a> which was published last year on Breitbart under the names of Allum Bokhari and Milo Yiannopoulos admitted that Reactionary thinkers were influences on the movement. The <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/josephbernstein/heres-how-breitbart-and-milo-smuggled-white-nationalism?utm_term=.guJpKRNxR#.krmNk1Em1">recent Buzzfeed report</a> on Breitbart internal emails revealed that Yiannopoulos solicited advice from Curtis Yarvin, a computer scientist who openly identifies as a neo-Reactionary, and Andrew "weev" Auernheimer, a neo-Nazi hacker who likes Evola. Another link in the chain is Aleksandr Dugin, a notorious Russian Counter-Enlightenment ideologue from Putin's circle who <a href="https://www.salon.com/2017/07/19/trumps-rasputin-steve-bannon-doesnt-have-russia-ties-but-encapsulates-infamous-advisors-spiritualism/">apparently thinks</a> that Bannon is his ideological soulmate. His works <a href="http://observer.com/2017/08/charlottesville-alt-right-counterintelligence/">were translated</a> into English by the wife of the alt-right guru Richard Spencer.<br />
<br />
The central idea of the Counter-Enlightenment is <b>anti-egalitarianism</b>, both in politics and in society at large. Reactionary theorists favoured traditional monarchy over constitutional democracy - a style of thinking with which Trump is plainly sympathetic. They also favoured patriarchy over women's emancipation - a fact which is not unconnected with the observation that a major impetus to the growth of the alt-right was the 2014 anti-feminist campaign known as "Gamergate" (this <a href="http://observer.com/2017/08/charlottesville-alt-right-counterintelligence/">was the source</a> of the ubiquitous alt-right cacophemism "cuck"). Oddly enough, one thing that the original Reactionaries <i>weren't</i> particularly concerned about was race - there were few black or Asian immigrants in 19th century Europe. That said, from the late 19th century onwards, they began to promote the increasingly fashionable Jewish conspiracy theories of the day.<br />
<br />
The original Reactionaries were also against capitalism, preferring instead a paternalistic, feudal economic order. Charles Maurras even spoke favourably of trade unions:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In the economic order, the principle of freedom means that the interplay of the freedoms of individuals, from which a beneficial outcome is supposed to inevitably emerge, must be treated as sacrosanct. All that is needed is <i>laisser faire</i> and non-intervention. Terms of employment must therefore be an individual matter. Both out of respect for his personal freedom and in deference to the way that the world works, the worker must obey the requirements of the Chapelier Decree, and strictly refrain from joining any association, group, federation or union relating to his employment which is of a nature to interfere with the free play of supply and demand, the free exchange of wages and labour. Too bad if the employer is a millionaire with an absolute right to choose among 10,000 workers - freedom, freedom! Economic freedom therefore quickly degenerates into the well-known freedom to die of hunger.</blockquote>
Parts of the modern alt-right mix Counter-Enlightenment ideas with small-state economic libertarianism; but there is nevertheless something of an anti-freemarket current in the movement, which is visible in Steve Bannon's commitment to "economic nationalism". Something else that has an ambiguous place in the alt-right is religion. The classical Reactionaries were mostly diehard Roman Catholics - indeed, several of them were prelates or popes - but the current ended up getting mixed up with esoteric and pseudo-pagan ideas, notably in the works of Julius Evola. This seems to be echoed by the Catholic Bannon's reported <a href="https://www.salon.com/2017/07/19/steve-bannon-and-the-occult-the-right-wings-long-strange-love-affair-with-new-age-mysticism-2/">affinity for</a> new age mysticism.<br />
<br />
These, then, are some of the ideas that are shaping the thoughts of the current presidential administration in the USA and its penumbra of supporters. We have here an important clue to what these guys mean when they refer to defending "western civilization". And this all helps to explain how we have reached a situation in which George W. Bush, of all people, has emerged as a spokesman for liberal values.Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-15412825137769050922017-10-05T18:13:00.004+01:002018-07-22T12:35:20.211+01:00The Ted Heath reportIt seems that the police investigation into Sir Edward Heath has found only a rather small amount of evidence to substantiate the claim that he was a child abuser. He may still have been guilty, of course, but this isn't even close to the Jimmy Savile case. Yet, lest it be overlooked, <a href="http://www.wiltshire.police.uk/information/documents/op-conifer/797-op-conifer-summary-closure-report/file">today's report</a> did contain this interesting statement about the allegedly asexual bachelor at paragraph 8.28.2:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Witnesses who were interviewed by investigators from Operation Conifer offered different opinions about Sir Edward Heath’s sexuality. However two witnesses, who have not disclosed abuse, provided evidence that he was sexually active with consenting adults during parts of his life.</blockquote>
Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-91620638322194567932017-09-17T17:09:00.002+01:002017-09-17T17:20:12.676+01:00Boris Johnson and the enemy withinBoris Johnson has published his personal manifesto for Brexit; and, by a curious coincidence, this has happened just days before his boss is due to outline the Government's official manifesto for Brexit. As his colleagues immediately realised, this is a thinly veiled application for the job of Prime Minister.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Most of the article is dismal guff written on auto-Boris which leaves the reader feeling more stupid at the end for having read it. It is long on rhetoric about a "glorious future", with more or less vague references to the possibilities of new technology and the like. It is very short on detail about the issues that actually matter in the current crucial negotiations. Perhaps Johnson is positioning himself as a visionary statesman; or perhaps he just thinks that his readers are thick (and, given that he writes for the <i>Daily Telegraph</i>, he may not be wrong). At any rate, it is an unfortunate fact that there is a constituency in this country of people who think that good old Boris with his breezy, feelgood rhetoric is just what we need at the present historical moment. They are no doubt the same people who think that Britain's place as a mid-ranking power in a dangerous and unstable world can be maintained by nostalgia and force of willpower.<br />
<br />
Picking through the unctuous verbiage, there are a few matters of substance to object to in Johnson's job application. First, there are the outright lies. The worst of these is this:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Before the referendum we all agreed on what leaving the EU logically must entail: leaving the customs union and the single market, leaving the penumbra of the ECJ; taking back control of borders, cash, laws.</blockquote>
This is patently untrue. Notoriously, even the Leave side - let alone "we all" - did <i>not</i> have an agreed plan for "what leaving the EU logically must entail". The Remain campaign pointed this out at the time; and the prospect of a hard Brexit did not solidify in Government circles until last autumn. In any event, the idea that the 52% were consciously voting for a hard rather than a soft Brexit - or even that most of them understood the distinction - is utterly dishonest. It is not just wrong; it is not even arguable. People were not saying to Remain canvassers on the doorstep, "Sorry, mate, we want to leave the penumbra of the ECJ".<br />
<br />
Second, Johnson is carving out a position for himself as the candidate of the Right in the coming Tory leadership election. As has been observed, it is likely that one candidate from the Right will make it through to the final two names on the ballot paper; and it is likely that this person, whoever it is, will go on to be elected by the party members at large (who now, by the way, have an average age of 72). Accordingly, Johnson makes sure that he works in the usual dismal Thatcherite clichés about "free markets", "a culture that is pro-business and pro-enterprise", and "simplifying regulation, and cutting taxes wherever we can". Yet this is not just boilerplate Tory neoliberalism. Theresa May's policy is precisely to emphasise that Brexit will <i>not</i> be used to deregulate the economy - this came through very clearly from the Tory speeches in the recent Commons debates on the Brexit Bill. May does not want the idea getting about that this will be a Thatcherite Brexit, in part because she happens to come from the paternalistic wing of Toryism, but more importantly because that kind of talk offers the Labour Party an open goal. Johnson nods to the idea that we are not going to water down European environmental and social protections, but his emphasis is quite different from his boss's.<br />
<br />
Finally, there is the genuinely disturbing part. Johnson is attempting to ride the unruly tiger of British nationalism.<br />
<br />
There are countries in the world in which opposition to Government policy is characterised as disloyalty to the nation. Britain is, by and large, not one of them. Not since Margaret Thatcher called striking workers "the enemy within" has this tactic been used in the political mainstream. Yet there is a perceptible and disturbing trend towards labelling people who support the EU - or even just people who point out real problems in our approach to the current negotiations - as a treacherous fifth column. Andrea Leadsom infamously called on the media to be "a bit patriotic" in their Brexit coverage (although Leadsom is probably mad enough to have genuinely misunderstood the role of the media in a free society). The leading Tory activitst Tim Montgomerie has accused the BBC of broadcasting "propaganda for France" for no other reason than it has reported on the phenomenon - which is all too real - of the Macron government attempting to poach City businesses and jobs.<br />
<br />
Jolly old Bozza has evidently decided to join this unlovely tendency. He explicitly frames Remainers in general and Labour in particular as being not merely wrong but anti-British. The piece begins: "My friends, I must report that there are at least some people who are woefully underestimating this country." He goes on to accuse Labour of courting "national humiliation" and showing "a dismal lack of confidence in this country". He ends with a peroration directed at "all those who write off this country, who think we don’t have it in us, who think that we lack the nerve and the confidence to tackle the task ahead". He doesn't quite call them cucks, but the rhetoric has a worryingly Bannonite feel to it.<br />
<br />
He also worries about young people developing an emotional loyalty to Europe. This inverts the usual nationalist argument against the EU (which, rather inconsistently, Johnson uses elsewhere in his piece): that it represents an artificial attempt to impose a European identity which does not truly exist. Johnson's fear is that it <i>is</i> starting to exist - and he wants to use Government policy to stamp it out:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I look at so many young people with the 12 stars lipsticked to their faces, and I am troubled with the thought that people are beginning to have genuinely split allegiances.<br />
And when people say that they feel they have more in common with others in Europe than with people who voted Leave I want to say, but that is part of the reason why people voted Leave.<br />
You don’t have to be some tub-thumping nationalist to worry that a transnational sense of allegiance can weaken the ties between us; and you don’t have to be an out and out nationalist to feel an immense pride in this country, and what it can do.</blockquote>
The idea seems to be that each individual has a fixed and finite quantity of loyalty, and that loyalty to a European identity can only come at the expense of allegiance to Britain. This is such a transparently wrong idea that it needs no refutation. I really doubt that Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson - a man with Turkish, French and German blood, who was a US citizen until earlier this year - really believes such McCarthyite bilge. But he clearly does know what excites the right wing of the Conservative Party. All politics involves a certain amount of opportunism, but in this case Johnson has gone too far; disgust is really the only appropriate emotion. The man is cynically trying to use, to further his own career, the fears and prejudices of people who are stupider and more bigoted than him.<br />
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There is still a potential good scenario for a Johnson premiership. The sinister tub-thumping is plainly an attempt at political posturing, and Johnson is arguably the only Tory PM who is maintaining enough Leave credit at this point to deliver a soft Brexit (which is plausibly what he has really wanted all along). But this isn't the only possibility. It is equally possible that he will end up realising that it isn't he who is using the nationalist Right for his own ends, but rather the other way around.Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-86401851722415296412017-09-10T13:08:00.000+01:002017-09-17T10:20:35.210+01:00Jacob Rees-Mogg and the sleep of reason<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Quentin Letts made the worst mistake possible when he described Jacob Rees-Mogg as the Honourable Member for the Eighteenth Century. To tag JRM as an authentic survival of the era of squires and slavery is to make the basic error of taking the man at face value. That the son of a journalist from Hammersmith can dress and talk like JRM in the year 2017 is not a sign of the persistence of historical conservatism - it amounts to a radically postmodern form of identity fluidity, a kind of hard-right equivalent of declaring oneself to be genderqueer. In this sense, JRM is several degrees more radical than Jeremy Corbyn, who has never pretended to be anything other than a middle-class lefty. It is JRM's good fortune that his eyecatching identity-shopping has coincided with a tendency to treat politics as a species of entertainment, a tendency which gives an advantage to "characters" like Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage over dull worthies like Amber Rudd and Vince Cable.</div>
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His schtick does not hold up to any kind of scrutiny. Marina Hyde, a genuinely blue-blooded <i>Guardian</i> columnist, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/08/jacob-rees-mogg-conservatives-eton-eccentric">has commented</a> that JRM is a P.G. Wodehouse fan's idea of what a posh person is like (and what fun Wodehouse's satirical pen would have had with someone like Rees-Mogg). Imagine what the Queen thinks of his nonsense - or, better yet, Prince Philip. This is why the short-lived Tory boy organisation Activate was so unwise to use this graphic:<br />
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<img alt="Image result for conservative activate" class="irc_mi" src="http://www.newstatesman.com/sites/default/files/styles/nodeimage/public/blogs_2017/09/activate_corbyn_mogg.jpg?itok=8sUA6Iqo" height="250" style="margin-top: 11px;" width="400" /><b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><br />
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The fact is that Corbo's brand of Islingtonian socialism is a familiar and well established part of British society, from Sidney and Beatrice Webb to Tony Crosland to Tony Benn. We British may or may not agree with the views held by such people; but poseurs are in an altogether different league of contempt.<br />
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From time to time, the mistakes show, if you know what to look for. His first Tweet was in Latin - <i>"Tempora mutantur, et nos mutamur in illis"</i>, "Times change, and we change with them". But he was not a good enough classicist to realise that this isn't a genuine Roman phrase, but rather a new coinage originating among German Protestants in the Reformation. So much for JRM the ultra-Catholic (and we'll come back to that again later). Likewise, calling his sixth child Sixtus sounds like less of a witty cerebral joke if one knows, as a real Latin scholar would, that "Sextus" is the Latin for "sixth" and the name Sixtus has a completely different etymology. What's more, the last famous person in history called Sixtus was Pope Sixtus V, who agreed to fund the Spanish Armada and excommunicated Queen Elizabeth I. What was that about "nobody more British" again?<br />
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It's tempting to say that the man himself must be aware of his own inauthenticity. After all, he's not stupid. When he made his <a href="http://qi.com/infocloud/jobs">infamous comment</a> about his nanny and his valet back in 1997, he must have known that very few men in Britain, even wealthy men from old families, still employed valets at that time. Nannies were not that common either, before the increase in Eastern European migrants on the labour market during the Blair years made them a viable option for a larger number of affluent families. JRM cannot not have known this; and yet he chose to say what he said. Did he <i>want</i> people to see that he was a fake? Was it just a sad attempt at attention seeking? Did he genuinely not realise how transparent he was?<br />
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Probably the latter. The fact is that Rees-Mogg has been behaving like this for years. He <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/everyone-took-the-piss-out-of-jacob-rees-mogg-at-university">acted like</a> a tit at university. Even before that, when he was 16, <a href="http://www.tatler.com/article/jacob-rees-mogg-interview">he was talking</a> about listening to the "wireless". As Google Ngrams will confirm, the word "radio" had already superseded "wireless" in British English by 1940. A guy who was already making this sort of clumsy linguistic choice in his mid-teens might well come to believe in his own persona. Calling it affectation fails to grasp the full weirdness of what is going on. JRM never breaks character, and the suspicion must be that this is because the sub-Wodehousian facade really <i>is</i> his character. It has been his inner and outer life since his childhood. You would need a psychiatrist to tell you the full implications of this, but you don't need a medical degree to know that he's not a man that you'd want running the country.<b></b><br />
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His politics only make it worse. Part of the ideology of the traditional English gentleman was <i>noblesse oblige</i> - a paternalistic sense of duty towards the poorer members of society. It didn't work out in practice, of course, but the ideal was there. Maybe JRM has adopted that, along with the retro tailoring and interwar vocabulary?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigrAdprbmQA4HeG5vBCmLDUXfz8TImCwIMduxxYoynF8S2Ta-NFpV6bLYEVrcUTzN3Y6Wmv3GIyskpF2Z2c4w1mcIyKO_afCJHd7wkN1gJJQkTSlns_EP7rc3-VrGfPvvqrBmZD1eN8hdI/s1600/JRM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="565" data-original-width="731" height="307" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigrAdprbmQA4HeG5vBCmLDUXfz8TImCwIMduxxYoynF8S2Ta-NFpV6bLYEVrcUTzN3Y6Wmv3GIyskpF2Z2c4w1mcIyKO_afCJHd7wkN1gJJQkTSlns_EP7rc3-VrGfPvvqrBmZD1eN8hdI/s400/JRM.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Ah. Seems not then.<br />
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In truth, JRM's politics are less William Pitt than Norman Tebbit. His political stance is based on an essentially uncritical admiration of Thatcherite capitalism and a contempt for social equality. He criticised David Cameron's coalition with the Lib Dems and called for a deal with UKIP instead. He endorsed Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election (and then backtracked after the pussy-grabbing tape was released). He spoke up for Sir Philip Green of BHS when even the <i>Daily Mail</i> had turned against him. He spoke at a dinner of the far-right Traditional Britain Group in 2013. He <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23617555">later distanced himself</a> from the organisation when he found out how overtly racist it was, but this raises more questions than it answers. Did he fit in so well with these guys that he didn't notice anything amiss during the evening itself?<br />
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And so to his latest foray into the public eye - his statements last week to the effect that he opposes gay marriage and abortion. His position on these issues is more revealing than has generally been realised. An apologist might say, well, his views are out of step with the mainstream, but at least they show that he has integrity insofar as he is adhering in conscience to the teachings of his church. Except that he isn't. JRM is well able to reject Catholic teachings when it suits him to do so. The Catholic Church has a long record of denouncing unrestricted capitalism, and Rees-Mogg has no problem in expressing dissent from <i>that</i>. He <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201415/cmpublic/nhsamendedduties/150210/pm/150210s01.htm">told Parliament</a> that Pope Pius XI's great social encyclical <i>Quadragesimo Anno</i> had moved the church in a "socialist direction" - but he could ignore it because it wasn't technically an infallible statement. He learnt this stuff from his father William Rees-Mogg, who expressly rejected <i>Rerum Novarum</i>, another papal condemnation of right-wing economics. So JRM, like most educated Catholics today, knows damn well where the loopholes are. He must also know that the teachings that an embryo is a full human being from the moment of conception, and that marriage must be exclusively heterosexual, are not infallible either. But he doesn't use the loopholes <i>there</i>. He supports regressive social policies not because they are the will of God but because they are the will of Mogg.<br />
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This man will probably never lead his country... but then they said that about Trump too. We live in strange times, and no-one should bet against JRM inflicting his neuroses on the United Kingdom from Number 10 Downing Street.Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-3836443585912501762017-06-10T22:34:00.001+01:002017-06-12T08:32:58.683+01:00The DUP for English readers<i>I never thought that an abstruse knowledge of Troubles-era Northern Ireland political trivia would be of any practical use - but it seems that I was wrong.</i><br />
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Since Thursday night, the English voters seem to have discovered a few things about the DUP - in particular, that they are opposed to abortion and same-sex marriage. These policies are enough to put them outside the political mainstream and to justify raising the question of whether they are suitable partners for Theresa May as she seeks to pull together a new parliamentary majority. But there is more to the DUP than its social conservatism. English readers might want to know a bit more about the small regional party that has suddenly found itself holding the balance of power in the Commons. These guys are quite unusual in a number of ways.<br />
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<b>Where the DUP came from</b><br />
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From 1921 to 1972, Northern Ireland was ruled by a devolved administration in Belfast. The province's inbuilt Protestant majority guaranteed that the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) was permanently in power, winning election after election. The consequences of this permanent unionist hegemony were notoriously harsh for the Catholic nationalist minority. The results included their almost total exclusion from public life; endemic discrimination, particularly in jobs and housing; and a gerrymandered electoral system.<br />
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Opposition to this sectarian system came, of course, from the paramilitary IRA. Perhaps more seriously, opposition also came from the growing Catholic middle class; by the 1960s, this increasingly affluent and well educated section of the population was no longer prepared to tolerate being given second-class status. Tensions rose from the mid-60s onwards. By the end of the decade, peaceful civil rights protests had collapsed into inter-communal violence, and the British Army was sent in. The low point was reached with the notorious <a href="http://mediotutissimus.blogspot.co.uk/2011/12/bloody-sunday-and-oral-history.html">Bloody Sunday massacre</a> of 1972.<br />
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Part of the story of these troubled years lies in the internal history of unionist politics. The UUP were mostly establishment conservatives rather than loyalist fanatics, and their Prime Minister, Terence O'Neill, had been pursuing what passed in 1960s Northern Ireland for a liberal, reforming agenda ("If you treat Roman Catholics with due consideration and kindness they will live like Protestants"). The short version of the story is that, as Northern Ireland fell into violence and disorder, the UUP began to split up; and the DUP was the main right-wing product of this splitting.<br />
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The DUP was founded in 1971, although it grew out of an earlier outfit known as the Protestant Unionist Party, which had been set up in 1966 and had older roots. While the nakedly sectarian "Protestant Unionist" label was replaced by "Democratic Unionist", the party's version of democracy was one which sought to hand all power in Northern Ireland to the country's permanent Protestant unionist majority. The founding father of the party was, of course, the Reverend Dr Ian Paisley, a charismatic fundamentalist minister and one of the few true demagogues in modern British and Irish politics. For years, the party was widely seen as standing in Dr P's considerable shadow.<br />
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The rise of Paisleyite loyalism forced the resignation of Terence O'Neill as Prime Minister in 1969. The former PM retired from politics altogether in 1970, and his seat at Stormont was taken by a jubilant Paisley. It was as if David Cameron's old constituency had switched straight to Nigel Farage.<br />
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<b>The DUP in more recent years</b><br />
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During the long years of the Troubles, the dominant unionist party was still the UUP. On the nationalist side, the main party was the non-violent SDLP. The hardline parties - the DUP and Sinn Féin - failed to win over most voters in their respective communities.<br />
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The end of the Troubles reversed this situation. It was as if the voters of Northern Ireland now felt safe to separate out from the centre. This graph shows the respective share of the unionist vote that went to the UUP (blue) and the DUP (red) in general elections from 1974 to the present:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ2bEfblpnhxb5f1j1U6S4yhIY02u-GLtDfNlL6vRA7zwjoOFYvh3dXXT9qP2kLlBMmZwa0WGxDJjWUHQ7mTA_qkhB5WaRNJNdWBc1n8fDxQaa4Lpsl82qGU7FGHIY__ZbKae5seTSXYYR/s1600/uni.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="265" data-original-width="459" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ2bEfblpnhxb5f1j1U6S4yhIY02u-GLtDfNlL6vRA7zwjoOFYvh3dXXT9qP2kLlBMmZwa0WGxDJjWUHQ7mTA_qkhB5WaRNJNdWBc1n8fDxQaa4Lpsl82qGU7FGHIY__ZbKae5seTSXYYR/s400/uni.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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It is clear, then, that the DUP have widened their support since their days as a sectarian splinter group in the early 1970s. They have made some attempts to speak the language of diversity and inclusiveness. Ian Paisley himself struck up a famously close relationship with the former IRA leader Martin McGuinness during his time as First Minister of Northern Ireland - although it would be a mistake to think that this development was greeted warmly by other DUP members.<br />
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Perhaps surprisingly, the DUP <a href="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/liam-clarke/time-will-tell-if-dupcatholic-church-alliance-is-vote-winner-31022572.html">have begun</a> in recent years to entertain hopes that their social conservatism will win over right-wing Catholics, in an era in which both of the Catholic community's parties (Sinn Féin and the SDLP) are largely liberal and secular. These hopes have to date proved largely fruitless. The no-popery fundamentalist roots of the DUP are still showing. Earlier this year, the <i>Irish Times</i> journalist Andy Pollak <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/anti-catholic-bigotry-of-many-in-dup-still-significant-1.2982216">wrote that</a> the "anti-Irish and anti-Catholic bigotry of so many DUP-supporting unionists appears to still play a significant role in Northern life and politics"; although he did also acknowledge that "such bigotry is far less prevalent among younger DUP members". <br />
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In recent years, it is fair to say that the party has largely been run by what may be described as small-town conservatives - Arlene Foster, Simon Hamilton - rather than shariah-lite theocrats. We are talking UKIP-with-a-Ballymena-accent here rather than <i>The Handmaid's Tale</i>. Pollak estimated that 80% of DUP members would have been hardline fundamentalist Protestants in the 1980s, whereas only a third of DUP legislators at Stormont are still of that bent today. A third is clearly less than 80% - although it is still undoubtedly higher than the equivalent figure for, say, the Conservative contingent in the House of Commons. And there are other indications that the DUP is no ordinary political party. In 2008, its then leader Peter Robinson appointed a climate change denier, Sammy Wilson, as the Environment Minister at Stormont. This development would no doubt have been rejected by the scriptwriters of <i>The Thick of It</i> as being too implausible to make good satire. Wilson is one of the party's current MPs at Westminster.<br />
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It is interesting to note that the only MP that the DUP has ever had from outside Northern Ireland was Andrew Hunter, who represented the quintessentially middle-English constituency of Basingstoke on behalf of Paisleyite loyalism from 2004 to 2005. Hunter had previously been a member of the lunar right of the Conservative Party, and his Irish heritage led to him want to seek a more active role in the Irish political sphere.<br />
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<b>Terrorism and political violence</b><br />
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It has been noted that it is ironic that a Conservative government which spent the election campaign digging up Jeremy Corbyn's ancient links with Sinn Féin should be so ready to get into bed with an outfit like the DUP.<br />
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When loyalist terrorists were interviewed and asked how they had got into paramilitarism, it is significant that Ian Paisley's name kept coming up as a source of inspiration. To be fair, Dr Paisley himself consistently denounced the loyalist terror gangs, with apparently genuine conviction. But that isn't the end of the story. Consider:<br />
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<li>As early as 1966, Paisley became chairman of a body known as the Ulster Constitution Defence Committee. This body disavowed terrorism, and its principal activity was to organise public protests; but it is accepted today that it also had links with paramilitarism.</li>
<li>In 1981, Paisley assembled a group of about 500 people on an Antrim hillside. These people proceeded to brandish firearms licences showing that they had a legal right to own guns. This was interpreted by Paisley's opponents as a barely veiled threat of violence.</li>
<li>In 1986, a loyalist group called Ulster Resistance (UR) was founded by a group of DUP members, including Paisley and our friend Sammy Wilson. People associated with UR were later implicated in arms dealing, although it is not suggested that this included any past or present DUP MPs.</li>
<li>Also in 1986, a group of loyalists, including the then DUP deputy leader Peter Robinson, made a brief but violent incursion into the Republic of Ireland, allegedly to highlight security failings in the Republic. This was the so-called "Clontibret invasion". It is believed that Paisley was originally meant to take part in it.</li>
<li>In 2014, the DUP group in the Northern Ireland Assembly <a href="https://www.theyworkforyou.com/ni/?id=2010-05-24.9.44">proposed a motion</a> commemorating the disbandment of the notorious "B Specials" in 1970. The B Specials were not terrorists; arguably, they were worse, because they wore the uniform of the state. They were a brutal and sectarian police reserve force which even unionists don't usually bother to defend today.</li>
<li>A body representing the surviving loyalist paramilitary groups endorsed three DUP candidates in the recent election. The party leader, Arlene Foster, rejected any support from paramilitaries.</li>
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<a href="https://ansionnachfionn.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/peter-robinson-leads-ulster-resistance-militants-in-a-rally-british-occupied-north-of-ireland-1987-including-noel-little-uda-terrorist-and-arms-smuggler.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="448" data-original-width="700" height="255" src="https://ansionnachfionn.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/peter-robinson-leads-ulster-resistance-militants-in-a-rally-british-occupied-north-of-ireland-1987-including-noel-little-uda-terrorist-and-arms-smuggler.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i>Peter Robinson with Ulster Resistance members, 1987</i></div>
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<b>What do the DUP want?</b><br />
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The DUP are not just a right-wing loyalist party. In fact, in some ways they are not really right-wing. In the field of economic policy, they have staked out a position as populist friends of the workers. In recent years, they have been seen campaigning for a higher minimum wage, reform of zero hours contracts and caps on energy prices. Conversely, they have taken up positions against the bedroom tax and the abolition of the triple lock on the state pension. These people are not Thatcherites with an ideological aversion to the government intervening in the economy.<br />
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In 2015, when everyone expected the general election to produce a hung Parliament, the DUP approached the polls with their hand held firmly out in the direction of HM Treasury. Their <a href="http://dev.mydup.com/images/uploads/publications/DUP_Manifesto_2015_LR.pdf">manifesto</a> stated:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In broad terms, to secure strong and lasting growth in our economy we believe it best if government invests in the drivers for growth – enterprise, innovation, skills and infrastructure – to sustain and build the economic recovery. As a responsible party we want to see the budget deficit eliminated. However, we recognise that the rush to reduce and eliminate the deficit can have an impact on growth....</blockquote>
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Among the fundamental budget requirements for Northern Ireland that we will campaign for are:</blockquote>
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• A budget settlement which will allow real term increases in health and education spending over the next five years without decimating other key public services.</blockquote>
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• Capital investment to make our schools and hospitals fit for the twenty-first century.</blockquote>
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• Assistance to continue the reform and transformation of our public services.</blockquote>
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Even for the DUP, ideology may count for less than pounds, shillings and pence, particularly in circumstances where there is the prospect of several billions of them flowing from London to Belfast. From this point of view, the DUP are not Tories. Indeed, it is their old foes, the UUP, who have been the Conservatives' allies in Northern Ireland. The DUP also seem to have had no problem getting close to Labour back in the days of Gordon Brown.<br />
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In this context, a few quotes from Hansard will suffice to illustrate some of the things that were on the DUP MPs' minds during the last Parliament:<br />
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Does the Secretary of State agree that, to build and strengthen the economy of Northern Ireland, investment in infrastructure is absolutely vital?... Will the Secretary of State take the opportunity to reiterate to the Minister for Infrastructure that all EU projects that are signed off before we leave the EU will be funded even if they continue after we leave the EU? (Nigel Dodds, 26 October 2016)</blockquote>
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May I personally thank the Secretary of State for the efforts she made in helping to secure a £67 million contract for the Wrights Group in Ballymena, which was very well received there, and for the work she did behind the scenes in securing that contract?... Will she, like me, ensure that, irrespective of the outcome [of the EU referendum], every effort is made to make sure that moneys released to the United Kingdom will be used to attract inward investment in Northern Ireland? (Ian Paisley Jr., 20 April 2016)</blockquote>
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I thank the hon. Lady for giving me the opportunity to make it absolutely clear that 105,000 families in Northern Ireland will, as a result of this agreement, be protected in respect of tax credits. That is what the DUP has delivered. (Jeffrey Donaldson, 23 November 2015)</blockquote>
They were even prepared to show concern for the poverty of single mothers, even if they did slightly spoil it by referring to them as "females":<br />
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The Minister will be aware of the continuing concern across the United Kingdom about the welfare reform proposals as they impinge particularly on women with young families. Will she keep under review that continuing concern... to ensure that there is no continuing disadvantage to females, particularly those with young families? (Gregory Campbell, 21 July 2016)</blockquote>
At the present time, of course, the DUP's economic interests are inextricably bound up with Brexit. The party campaigned for Leave, but they are clearly worried about the consequences of crashing out of the European Union without a robust deal. The party's <a href="http://dev.mydup.com/images/uploads/publications/DUP_Wminster_Manifesto_2017_v5.pdf">2017 manifesto</a> states, in a paragraph which is bolded for extra emphasis:</div>
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It is in the interests of all in Northern Ireland that the UK-EU negotiations progress well and that the trade elements commence as soon as possible. The stronger and more positive the agreements reached, especially on trade and customs relationships, then the better for the particular circumstances of Northern Ireland.</blockquote>
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The party's line is that it wants to see a "frictionless" border with the Republic of Ireland, but no new border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. These two policies, taken together, would rule out the UK leaving the single market and customs union as Theresa May has promised. The implications of this are substantial, and have only just begun to be digested.</div>
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Northern Ireland is a place of surprises. It would be one of the bigger surprises of my own lifetime if it was the forces of Paisleyite fundamentalism that ended up protecting the UK from the disaster of a hard Brexit. NO SURRENDER!</div>
Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11092730975259196019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1832979388124216380.post-54165284040417152312017-02-18T10:19:00.000+00:002017-02-18T10:20:20.601+00:00Tom Bower, Broken Vows<div>
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Oh shit, oh shit. Whatever why I'm so so missing Tony. Because he is so charming and his clothes are so good. He has such a good body and he had his really, really good legs Butt... and he is slim tall and good skin. Pierce blue eyes which I love. Love his eyes.</blockquote>
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Such was the verdict of Wendi Deng on the Rt. Hon. Anthony Blair, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1997 to 2007. Bower quotes these ill-chosen words from a haul of emails from News Corporation's servers. His own verdict on the former premier is rather less flattering.</div>
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The portrait of Blair that emerges from Bower's study is that of a superficial, unreflective and ultimately ineffectual figure - a man whose glib charm masked an essential inability to shoulder the responsibilities of his office. His Oxford education had been a waste of time and money: he had spent most of his spell at St John's College playing football and jamming with his rock band. He was a poor judge of character, and he had little knowledge of history. When by chance he stumbled on Neville Chamberlain's personal diaries at Chequers, he didn't realise how little they had to teach him about how to deal with Saddam Hussein 60 years later. His ignorance extended even to his own political party: Clement Attlee and Harold Wilson were little more than names to him.<br />
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It comes as no surprise to discover that Blair was autocratic. He showed something like contempt for his Cabinet ministers, under the mistaken impression that Margaret Thatcher had done the same. He didn't like receiving unwelcome advice from civil servants. He preferred to rely on a small clique of confidants - the thuggish Alastair Campbell, the oily Peter Mandelson, the inept Jonathan Powell. Oddly enough, one member of the inner circle was Anji Hunter, who had been his first girlfriend as a teenager; a fact that Cherie found difficult to overlook.<br />
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Yet Blair was an authoritarian who had very little idea what to do with his authority. During his ascent to power in the 1990s, New Labour was a vehicle for winning elections, not for governing a country. He didn't even know how to get things done. He brushed aside the traditional protocols and safeguards of Whitehall without putting anything effective in their place. Bower describes a system of "government by assertion", in which a combination of slogans, targets, willpower and favourable press coverage were considered sufficient to change the country. It was <i>The Thick of It</i> made flesh. Quick wins which played well in the media were prioritised over long-term reforms. It is not irrelevant here that Blair had never previously had a job in government at any level, nor had he ever run any large organisation, with the unusual exception of the Labour Party.<br />
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The standard critique of Blair from the left is that he was a crypto-Tory. If Bower is to be believed, his failing was more basic than that: he didn't have strong or clear enough beliefs to be a crypto-anything. When he came to power, he was disturbingly ignorant of, or uninterested in, high-profile policy areas like the economy, the NHS and immigration. The only exception seems to have been education, which he did know something about but was nevertheless slow to reform. His overall record was, according to Bower, insubstantial. <br />
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The big exception to this pattern of dilettantism, of course, was Iraq. Blair really found himself in Iraq. His messianic ambitions to change the world through military force can be traced back to his first term of office, although they had been typically unfocused and uninformed ("I know we have an army, navy and air force," he told the Chief of the Defence Staff, "but I don't know any more"). After 9/11, there was a step change. Blair turned his back on his elected Cabinet ministers and went all in with the Bush Administration. Of course, it all ended in disaster, with an underfunded army struggling to rein in a brutal sectarian civil war. But Blair has been slow to show remorse for his decisions. Bower is not impressed with his performance in front of Chilcot.<br />
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The book also confirms what we largely already knew, namely that the one real obstacle to Blair within his government was his powerful but dysfunctional Chancellor. Gordon Brown ran the Treasury as a personal fiefdom and showed anger and contempt towards Blair and anyone else who got in his way. Blair's attitude towards him was one of uncharacteristic nervousness and insecurity. He tried to avoid dealing with him. Luckily for Blair, Brown ended up being saddled with the blame for the financial crisis which had gestated on the younger man's watch.</div>
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Since leaving office, Blair has apparently taken to calling himself Britain's "most successful prime minister" and cultivating a grudge against people who fail to appreciate his special talents. He has famously given free rein to his ingrained fascination with money - both making it and associating with people who have it. The man himself protests that he does a large amount of unpaid work, but Bower sees things differently. The closest that Blair has had to a real political job, beyond advising various dictators, was his time as the West's peace envoy to the Middle East. This was a notorious failure, although Bower does acknowledge that this was in part because the Americans didn't give him sufficient backing.<br />
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Bower has left us an extremely full and well researched account of the Blair years - the book is comprehensive to the point where the detail compromises its readability. It has to be said that Bower's own biases against Blair's politics - Bower is squarely a man of the conservative right - are fully on show. His treatment does not claim to be balanced, and he seems unwilling to grant that Blair had any positive achievements at all. There is something amiss when an author attacks Tony Blair's judgement and yet appears to believe that Alan Milburn was prime ministerial material. Nevertheless, if this book is a case for the prosecution, it is one that Blair's defenders must meet.</div>
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